Debby?

Stormtracker_Tony · Jun 22nd 2012, 02:12 AM

Looks like Debby is on the horizon...

<sarcasm>At least the GFS Ensembles are tightly clustered, should be an easy forecast track</sarcasm>

MOCR · Jun 22nd 2012, 05:26 AM

I'll put $500 on AP05...

wx or not · Jun 22nd 2012, 07:26 AM

Anybody bring sauce for this spaghetti?

Stormtracker_Tony · Jun 22nd 2012, 08:45 AM

Just checking out some mid-high level thickness values..Pretty impressive. I mean, you've got H5 heights in the mid 580s....H2 heights in the mid 240s..Oh yeah, it's ripe! That sucker's getting ready to blow!

vortmaximum · Jun 22nd 2012, 10:31 AM

I'll take AP20. Always bet on black..........

News Is Broken · Jun 22nd 2012, 11:20 AM

I'm really surprised that Tony didn't go for the obvious Does Dallas reference here....

Stormtracker_Tony · Jun 23rd 2012, 01:45 PM

and it's official. Looks like they're initializing as 45 kts. A bit on the conservative side based on some of the SFMR readings, but this method does tend to have a slightly high bias in this intensity range, so likely a wise choice for them to undercut it a bit.

Looks like they're biting on the westward track, which probably is the best gamble at this point considering the ridging over the south. With that track, I could see it getting stronger than their current intensity forecast....Especially later in the forecast period...The early period may struggle from that mid level low and the dry and capped air on the west side of the cyclone (GOES soundings showing pretty high LFC's over that part of the gulf).

MOCR · Jun 23rd 2012, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vortmaximum

I'll take AP20. Always bet on black..........

Well, AP05 does go "through Dallas", hence my wager.

But I like AP20 too- we could use the rain from a tropical system here in West Texas...

WXFORECASTER · Jun 23rd 2012, 08:26 PM

If this thing goes toward texas it would be more of a wind storm because I think that dry air will eat up that Precip!

Ralphie the buffalo · Jun 23rd 2012, 08:30 PM

I'm impressed. Tony kinda sounds like he knows what he is talking about.

Stormtracker_Tony · Jun 23rd 2012, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WXFORECASTER

If this thing goes toward texas it would be more of a wind storm because I think that dry air will eat up that Precip!

Maybe a "tropical haboob"?

Keyeser · Jun 23rd 2012, 09:57 PM

The thought of Debby and Dallas crossed my mind as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YyTp9swrso

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOCR

Well, AP05 does go "through Dallas", hence my wager.

But I like AP20 too- we could use the rain from a tropical system here in West Texas...

WXFORECASTER · Jun 24th 2012, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stormtracker_Tony

Maybe a "tropical haboob"?

And every weather person/Meteorologist better call it right. "Haboob"!!!!!!! I WANT a montage of the word "haboob" on The Soup!! That would be great. Or Tosh.O!

But i doubt it will go anywhere near texas

Stormtracker_Tony · Jun 24th 2012, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WXFORECASTER

But i doubt it will go anywhere near texas

Yeah, that dream is starting to look rather dead. Given the current intensity range and as far north as it's managed to track, chances are looking much greater that it'll get absorbed into that east coast trough, thus a Florida landfall. In the event it doesn't make much more northward progress and did happen to get left behind by the trough, that building ridge over the southern plains/deep south could allow for a more southwestward motion next week, but I'm sure not counting on it at this point.

One things for sure...Anytime you have a developing tropical cyclone with an escaping, amplifying trough to the northeast and a building ridge to the northwest, you're in for a track forecast headache!

Meanwhile, already a dozen preliminary tornado LSR's across Florida today, plus several yesterday. If this thing doesn't kick out with the trough and goes stationary for a few days, this could turn into a pretty nasty, long-term tornado event for them.

News Is Broken · Jun 28th 2012, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stormtracker_Tony

One things for sure...Anytime you have a developing tropical cyclone with an escaping, amplifying trough to the northeast and a building ridge to the northwest, you're in for a track forecast headache!

I hate it when that happens.

Jun 22nd 2012, 02:12 AM	#1
Stormtracker_Tony Open Line Elite Join Date: May 2005 Location: checkoslovocia Posts: 6,854	Debby Looks like Debby is on the horizon... <sarcasm>At least the GFS Ensembles are tightly clustered, should be an easy forecast track</sarcasm> __________________ Certified Dealer of Davis, LaCrosse, Kestrel, Oregon Scientific and many others. PM to learn more about my instruments (THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!)...Also, I retail thousands of other products from electronics, housewares, lawn & garden, outdoors, etc. If you need any random crap, let me know and I can try to hook you up with a deal. Last edited by Stormtracker_Tony; Jun 23rd 2012 at 01:08 PM.

Jun 22nd 2012, 05:26 AM	#2
MOCR Open Line Veteran Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: TEXAS Posts: 2,733	I'll put $500 on AP05... __________________ "There are storms that are named, storms that are not named, and storms that are named that are not storms" -NHC Director Rumsfeld

Jun 22nd 2012, 07:26 AM	#3
wx or not A Bit Off Center Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: North of Cincinnati Posts: 14,572	Anybody bring sauce for this spaghetti? __________________ Enjoy the veal! Be sure to tip your weatherman!

Jun 22nd 2012, 08:45 AM	#4
Stormtracker_Tony Open Line Elite Join Date: May 2005 Location: checkoslovocia Posts: 6,854	Just checking out some mid-high level thickness values..Pretty impressive. I mean, you've got H5 heights in the mid 580s....H2 heights in the mid 240s..Oh yeah, it's ripe! That sucker's getting ready to blow! __________________ Certified Dealer of Davis, LaCrosse, Kestrel, Oregon Scientific and many others. PM to learn more about my instruments (THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!)...Also, I retail thousands of other products from electronics, housewares, lawn & garden, outdoors, etc. If you need any random crap, let me know and I can try to hook you up with a deal.

Jun 22nd 2012, 10:31 AM	#5
vortmaximum Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In the clouds Posts: 1,151	I'll take AP20. Always bet on black.......... __________________ What a long strange trip its been.....

Jun 22nd 2012, 11:20 AM	#6
News Is Broken I'm bringin' sexy back Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Tagg Romney's basement Posts: 15,820	I'm really surprised that Tony didn't go for the obvious Does Dallas reference here.... __________________ -News is Broken All mouth and no stones New York'rr chickens out of a simple bet. "Mr. Broken is being a bad boy." - Traffic Goddess

Jun 23rd 2012, 01:45 PM	#7
Stormtracker_Tony Open Line Elite Join Date: May 2005 Location: checkoslovocia Posts: 6,854	and it's official. Looks like they're initializing as 45 kts. A bit on the conservative side based on some of the SFMR readings, but this method does tend to have a slightly high bias in this intensity range, so likely a wise choice for them to undercut it a bit. Looks like they're biting on the westward track, which probably is the best gamble at this point considering the ridging over the south. With that track, I could see it getting stronger than their current intensity forecast....Especially later in the forecast period...The early period may struggle from that mid level low and the dry and capped air on the west side of the cyclone (GOES soundings showing pretty high LFC's over that part of the gulf). __________________ Certified Dealer of Davis, LaCrosse, Kestrel, Oregon Scientific and many others. PM to learn more about my instruments (THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!)...Also, I retail thousands of other products from electronics, housewares, lawn & garden, outdoors, etc. If you need any random crap, let me know and I can try to hook you up with a deal. Last edited by Stormtracker_Tony; Jun 23rd 2012 at 01:56 PM.

Jun 23rd 2012, 08:26 PM	#9
WXFORECASTER #1 in WX FORECASTING Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: On the Beach... For real! Posts: 4,223	If this thing goes toward texas it would be more of a wind storm because I think that dry air will eat up that Precip! __________________ The Weather Forecaster Webpage

Jun 23rd 2012, 08:30 PM	#10
Ralphie the buffalo embracing the absurdity Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: the island of misfit toys Posts: 12,732	I'm impressed. Tony kinda sounds like he knows what he is talking about. __________________ Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense. Gautama the Buddha (more than 2,000 years ago) Nemesis always comes in through the unwatched door. David P Goldman

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