Dec 10th 2007, 02:27 PM
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#1 |
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Power Forecaster!
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Houston
Posts: 3,866
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Sunday East Coast Bomb???
18z GFS: One word.... YIKES!!
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You can't beat mother nature... You can only hope to tie. |
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Dec 10th 2007, 03:12 PM
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#2 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Posts: 705
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Two Words:
SMOKING CRACK
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Doing Weather is not a job, it is a Hobby! We are fortunate enough to get paid for it, don't overlook that! |
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Dec 10th 2007, 04:16 PM
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#3 |
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Deep South
Posts: 65
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The Euro model from 12Z has something similar. In fact, it looks like the Blizzard of '93 revisited.
Advice: don't tell your ND if you live along the east coast just yet...
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I am The Ump. My call stands. |
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Dec 10th 2007, 05:02 PM
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#4 | |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Baltimore
Posts: 1,265
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Quote:
That's like saying two weeks ahead of time in New Orleans that a Katrina-like storm may be brewing. Not a good idea.
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Do you feel like we do? |
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:24 PM
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#5 |
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Power Forecaster!
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Houston
Posts: 3,866
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AND NOW THE 00z...
972mb!!!
 
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You can't beat mother nature... You can only hope to tie. |
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:25 PM
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#6 |
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Guest
Posts: n/a
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0z GFS sticking with that solution. Double yikes.
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:37 PM
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#7 | |
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RDale Certified
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Back on the can....
Posts: 3,349
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uh oh
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:45 PM
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#8 | |
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Too much drama, no wx...
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lansing, MI
Posts: 4,224
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Some forecasting offices are already saying that 3 out of every 4 airlines will be shut down and 92.4% of all power lines will be downed in the area, with roughly 192 accidents per hour in the NYC metro area! That's good forecastin' at this range, no matter WHAT any model says or common sense would tell you
 Quote:
Last edited by rdale; Dec 10th 2007 at 07:55 PM. |
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:54 PM
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#9 | |
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Open Line Elite
Join Date: May 2005
Location: checkoslovocia
Posts: 5,094
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Quote:
....As does the 0z operational GFS..Definitely too soon to freak the public out about it, but anyone in the eastern U.S. definitely needs to watch carefully and not just toss this thing out as just a model flop...Will be interesting to see in a little while what the GFS ensembles do with it, as well as the EC, Canadian and Nogaps..Extended period of ice out in the midwest/plains ongoing with record warmth in the southeast...This is often a precursor to strong southern-stream action the following week... Perfect progging the current model output would be good news for my area, as it would spell heavy rains (and we're in a major drought, about to go down as the driest year on record here)....on the other hand, slight deviation to the NW of surface low track could spell a svr wx risk, whereas a slower and more south and east track could cause some wintry mix problems.....Rain, ice/snow, or severe--either way, I'd have to cheer it on because if we don't get some good precip soon, it could lead to some serious problems in parts of the southeast.. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, even though it is extended range because climatology extending from the current pattern would suggest an enhanced risk of a big southern and eastern U.S. storm system around that time..and speaking of the previous mention from another poster about the '93 superstorm, guidance picked up nicely on it far in advance...Not to say it will definitely be a repeat this time around, but the point is to not just automatically throw out longer range guidance everytime it develops a big storm---rather determine if it's a climatologically favorable situation based on time of year and current pattern around the world, as well as looking for consistancy and trends of other guidance to go along with the scenerio...
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Certified Dealer of Davis, LaCrosse, Kestrel, Oregon Scientific and many others. PM to learn more about my instruments (THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!  )...Also, I retail thousands of other products from electronics, housewares, lawn & garden, outdoors, etc. If you need any random crap, let me know and I can try to hook you up with a deal.
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Dec 10th 2007, 07:58 PM
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#10 | |
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Open Line Elite
Join Date: May 2005
Location: checkoslovocia
Posts: 5,094
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Quote:
Since when did the NAM start going out 130 plus hours?  All I ever find is 84 hours
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Certified Dealer of Davis, LaCrosse, Kestrel, Oregon Scientific and many others. PM to learn more about my instruments (THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID! )...Also, I retail thousands of other products from electronics, housewares, lawn & garden, outdoors, etc. If you need any random crap, let me know and I can try to hook you up with a deal.
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Dec 10th 2007, 08:00 PM
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#11 | |
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Too much drama, no wx...
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lansing, MI
Posts: 4,224
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Quote:
Nothing I can see resemble even REMOTELY the '93 event other than one set of GFS maps. Miguel is even old enough to remember that... http://www.weathermatrix.net/educati...rd93/1993a.gif |
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Dec 10th 2007, 08:01 PM
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#12 | |
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Too much drama, no wx...
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Lansing, MI
Posts: 4,224
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Quote:
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Dec 10th 2007, 08:55 PM
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#13 |
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Power Forecaster!
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Houston
Posts: 3,866
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Geez!
Now the 00z GEM jumps on board...
976 MB! 
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You can't beat mother nature... You can only hope to tie. |
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Dec 11th 2007, 01:57 AM
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#14 |
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#1 in WX FORECASTING
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: On the Beach... For real!
Posts: 4,095
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06Z GFS run looks very impressive! I guess time will tell huh??? I think it might be a little windy on the east coast!
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The Weather Forecaster Webpage |
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Dec 11th 2007, 02:00 AM
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#15 |
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Open Line Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: There
Posts: 4,194
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4 runs of EC now plus all models but GAPS going for it.
UK and EC similar track...GGEM track in between these two and more western GFS. Looks like I'll be working Sunday ! Hey Mayhem even Al, if GFS verifies you guys could get great "lake enhanced" snow tots your DMA's |
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Dec 11th 2007, 02:05 AM
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#16 |
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Open Line Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Home in the Ohio Valley
Posts: 1,610
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Those isobars are tighhhhhht! I'd love to experience that gradient...for a minute.
I once took a spring break to Boston, good choice right, and a northeaster' developed, we didn't bring coats, had to buy a hoody, that didn't help seeing the sights in downtown Boston. Coldest day ever. Like 30 degrees with 50mph winds.
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"Here’s to alcohol, the cause of — and solution to — all life’s problems. " |
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Dec 11th 2007, 02:19 AM
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#17 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Charlie don't surf!!
Posts: 987
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if this thing pans out for Maine we are changing the name of Stormwatch to Death-From-Above-Watch
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Dec 11th 2007, 02:44 AM
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#18 | |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Posts: 705
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Quote:
too much of this stuff. I enjoy my 80 degree days in Virginia, in December!
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Doing Weather is not a job, it is a Hobby! We are fortunate enough to get paid for it, don't overlook that! |
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Dec 11th 2007, 03:18 AM
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#19 | |
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Open Line Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: There
Posts: 4,194
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Quote:
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Dec 11th 2007, 03:19 AM
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#20 |
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Open Line Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Home in the Ohio Valley
Posts: 1,610
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83 here today, tomorrow and Thursday
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"Here’s to alcohol, the cause of — and solution to — all life’s problems. " |
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Dec 11th 2007, 03:35 AM
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#21 | |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Posts: 705
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Ha Ha!
Quote:
__________________
Doing Weather is not a job, it is a Hobby! We are fortunate enough to get paid for it, don't overlook that! |
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Dec 11th 2007, 03:41 AM
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#22 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Pac 10 Country
Posts: 138
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If this does pan out, we may see our first shot at some wintry mix by Sat. morning here in Dixie. But I echo the others, still haven't said the "s" word, people here would run for the grocery store!
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Ignoring time cues after sunset |
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Dec 11th 2007, 03:42 AM
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#23 |
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Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: PA
Posts: 45
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As I used to work in Scranton, and now in Columbus, I am watching this one. The GFS really backed off yesterday on the 12Z but as many of you noted this could be a biggie. If the next run of the Euro looks like it, I'd be placing serious money on a bomb this weekend. The 6Z GFS looks impressive as well, but I try not follow the the 6 or 18Z that much. I think these are the least accurate of the GFS runs. I'm anxiously awaiting the 12Z package this morning.
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Dec 11th 2007, 04:00 AM
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#24 |
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King of all Meteo
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 9,671
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What makes it more likely to happen is the what is left of Olga will be drawn in to help strengthen this. When I see bombs be fairly consistent from run to run and other models (Euro/GEM) showing the same thing...maybe not the exact same position or strength....I sit up and take notice. Now, with Olga's vorticity abel to feed in to this, I can almost guarantee we'll have a coastal bomb.
Plus, I don't often see forecastguy just 'jump' on a storm for no reason. He has a very keen intuition about all things weather. 
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Everybody's got something to hide 'cept for me and my monkey! |
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Dec 11th 2007, 04:03 AM
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#25 | |
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Open Line Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: There
Posts: 4,194
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Quote:
For now the GGEM to me is a good compromise. |
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