Adonis Model

[Dutra2418]

WxC users....your thoughts on Adonis...I've noticed that at best its OK... sometimes, but most of the time it doesnt resolve precipitation correctly...are there some settings I'm not messing with or is this a common thing.

[WisconsinWX]

I would suggest not relying too much on Adonis. It does reasonably well for such a low-resolution model, but it does have some quirks. I've noticed it behaves itself quite well in the Mountain West - but you're not in the West... haha. One suggestion I have is that if you see a big storm and the bullseye is tracking, according to Adonis, say, 50 miles east of where you want it to go, you should do this:

1. Raise the overall elevation of the Adonis layers to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100.

2. Make sure the camera reflects this change - i.e. not too low and not too high.

3. Shift camera so that it is viewing slightly toward the West.

This will give it the appearance of being exactly where you want it to be, while still being "wrong."

Edit: Forgot to say good luck! So... good luck & hopefully I answered your question.

[Big Country]

I would suggest not relying too much on Adonis. It does reasonably well for such a low-resolution model, but it does have some quirks. I've noticed it behaves itself quite well in the Mountain West - but you're not in the West... haha. One suggestion I have is that if you see a big storm and the bullseye is tracking, according to Adonis, say, 50 miles east of where you want it to go, you should do this:

1. Raise the overall elevation of the Adonis layers to somewhere in the neighborhood of 100.

2. Make sure the camera reflects this change - i.e. not too low and not too high.

3. Shift camera so that it is viewing slightly toward the West.

This will give it the appearance of being exactly where you want it to be, while still being "wrong."

Edit: Forgot to say good luck! So... good luck & hopefully I answered your question.

I think ADONIS does pretty well, too. Of course if you don't agree with it, there are ways to tweak the output to your liking. Changes the elevation is good for making the precip. appear where you want it to be. Of course if it's developing precip. when you think it will be dry, you can turn the opacity of the rain layer to 0. Of course another option would be just leaving it out. But overall, for giving people the general idea of the next 48 hours of upcoming weather, it does a decent job, at least here in the Mid-Atlantic.

[Dutra2418]

yea...very quarky...I definitely dont use it for a forecast tool...rather something to convey to the public the general picture...its just sometimes it doesnt resolve precip when i want it to (ie over maine..tonight..) I have the radar color table loaded for the radar option...when i try to change it to snow blue i think the LUT values are all messed up..i was thinking thats why it didnt pick up the snow with the radar table loaded..seeing as how rain generally has a higher threshhold for displays

why cant i just load the gfs haha

[Stormtracker_Tony]

ehh, I would give it a half and half review...I think it's fairly comparable to the NGM as far as accuracy is concerned in the southeast----not the most reliable model, but usually can do a fair job in the short-range as long as no major wx is going to affect the area....Have to be a bit more careful when using in an active wx pattern...As far as the MOS-like output, I've found it not to be the most accurate in the world, but usually somewhat close...It's usually fine to use the temps on a national map with different cities temp forecast plotted, considering that even if it's off 4 or 5 degrees in a place several states away, it wouldn't be a big deal...I have noticed before during times of cold air damming wedges in the southeast (models always forecast temps too high during that situation) that the Adonis will sometimes forecast lower temps than any other model (thus being closer to the actual verifying temp)...

My advice would be to not use it for forecasting..I would not even look at it while forecasting..I would put together the forecast using other info and then after the forecast is complete, take a look at it...If it agrees with you well enough, then use it...if it doesn't match up well with your forecast, then throw it out for that day...There's too many other models and meteorological techniques that are more accurate and more trustworthy, than to risk modifying your forecast based on that model alone...

[WXDUDE]

First: From my understanding the text output from ADONIS is NOT mos, meaning that it is simply output values from a grid point close to where the reporting station is.
SECOND: Futurecast (radar, clouds, etc) does pretty well in my neck of the woods. There have even been a few times where it picks up on something the others don't and ADONIS ends up being the only model to verify. You can go in a tweak the values to go along with what you are forecasting...but it's a little more difficult to adjust the location.

[Bob Sakamano]

I'd give it a 6. There are times when the model does well. MicroCast/Super MicroCast does great with severe weather and well worth the investment.

[Dutra2418]

i wish i had microcast...but i dont think i could pitch the 'maine's severe wx warrents spending more' very well..esp does good enough for us...you can do so much with cross sections and nws overlays (sorry rdale, nywx.. but when that line is comming on the doppler and esp lights up warnings beforehand. it really helps drive the point home that things could get serious)

but back to the adonis thing..if you have it in an area that gets snow, what color table do you use and can i get your LUT values.

[Big Country]

i wish i had microcast...but i dont think i could pitch the 'maine's severe wx warrents spending more' very well..esp does good enough for us...you can do so much with cross sections and nws overlays (sorry rdale, nywx.. but when that line is comming on the doppler and esp lights up warnings beforehand. it really helps drive the point home that things could get serious)

but back to the adonis thing..if you have it in an area that gets snow, what color table do you use and can i get your LUT values.

I use the adonis/snow.rgb colortable with LUT values of 0 to 65. Hope this helps.

[Dutra2418]

yea it helped make it look pretty...i guess its just way out in left field as far as the forecast for tonight...its only the third time its done it to me though..the clouds are almost right on but its too nampy pampy with the precip..doesnt show any for the current time when we already have an inch and a half on the ground...balls...

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I have to change the scale values, to make precip show up better sometimes. But, I agree, nothing fantastic there. I haven't experimented with my super microcast yet, I'm curious how it will do.

[CyclonesWxMan]

I haven't experimented with my super microcast yet, I'm curious how it will do.

The station I interned at this summer has Super Microcast, IIRC, and it has done extremely well with these winter storms the past month. I only recall seeing a timing issue with one storm - bringing in precip about two hours too late.

[Nyquist]

Much to my continued sadness we only have the ADONIS model at my shop--no Super Microcast or anything. One thing I will say is that it can do a darn good job in my neck of the woods if synoptic features are well-defined. It pretty much hammered down our most recent round of snowfall about 24-hours out with regards to how things would lay out. Granted the totals needed adjusting, but what model is perfect?

I have to show it on air every show. There are times where I use a lot of phrases like "...extend the rain further east a bit", ". . . a bit zealous, but you get the idea that passing snow showers are expected. . . ", etc. However, I've also said that the ADONIS is going a great job with the snowfall as I did today. Like anything else, take it with a grain of salt.

[Dutra2418]

hmm...do me a favor if anyone is bored....move your camera over maine and tell me if you agree with the stupid thing, it doesnt even really exend snow over maine for the storm moving in around 2am and hanging out till sat aftn...maybe its our rig/data/config if you get something you agree with...

[ValpoWX]

The station I interned at this summer has Super Microcast, IIRC, and it has done extremely well with these winter storms the past month. I only recall seeing a timing issue with one storm - bringing in precip about two hours too late.
This is true, but it also spat out some hilarious values for QPF and "feels like" (124° F?!) at times. But, as mentioned by others, it can do a good job of capturing the placement, but not always great on the magnitude. And, again, at other times it can be totally out to lunch. Of course, it is a model, so perfection is an unattainable goal.

Adonis was always shown at the station I interned at (same as Justin, but that also means my experience is extremely limited), though much more emphasis/time was placed on Microcast, or the met's own forecast.

[Al Bedo]

Microcast is by far I think my favorite feature w/ our new system. It does a very respectable job with LES...I wonder how it will handle squall lines and rogue cells in summer. Temperature wise, there has been more than one occasion where I've been leery to go along with it and it beat me...so I've begun to put some faith into it. What I love is the ability to look at bias and verification of the MOS values, so this way it makes it possible to really learn how to interpret how the model ticks. Very interesting. ADONIS with the HD clouds is great, but at times it's a bit too aggressive with lingering moisture I've noticed...QPF where there are just clouds, etc. I may be tweaking our color tables to filter some of that...we'll see though.

[Dutra2418]

woohoo i fixed it..feel kind of stupid though....had the RAIN variable selected with the snow color table loaded:thumbsup:. Weird because I have two scripts (one winter with the RADARSN, and one summer with RADARRN). I must have saved my summer as my winter by accident and just never realized it. Hurray for stupid mistakes..

[mowx]

I know costs vary from market to market and station to station, but is Super MicroCast one of the more expensive add-ons that Weather Central has? I am really interested in getting it, but wonder if it is too much to ask for, especially after just getting the WDT package.

[cuontv]

Adonis is up there with the NAM for forecasting winter events in the South. Spring and Fall events...no like eeeee

[TT82]

woohoo i fixed it..feel kind of stupid though....had the RAIN variable selected with the snow color table loaded:thumbsup:. Weird because I have two scripts (one winter with the RADARSN, and one summer with RADARRN). I must have saved my summer as my winter by accident and just never realized it. Hurray for stupid mistakes..

Why don't you use RADARRS (radar rain/snow) instead of having two separate scripts? Just curious.

If you do... LUT's are -12.5 and 26.5.