Is missing a snow forecast by 2 inches a bust?

[niceweather]

We have some snow here today, some of it which was enhanced to my north. Our forecast was in the 3-5 inch range, which was above the NWS and other local media outlets. The northern counties got around 5, with some locations close to 7. I was pissed! But I knew that at least I was closer than anybody else...

Anyway, today in the newsroom, I get crushed by folks telling me I completely busted the forecast! By an inch or two! I was getting it so hard I just wanted to walk out of the station. I tried to explain what happened, but they didn't even bother to hear my explanation.

Thoughts?

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

No,

Unless you are forecasting none, and you get two inches.

[TAFKA wacowx]

In some case, you could be right on the money and people will perceive that you busted.

I will say there is a big difference between 3 inches of snow (which it may have been perceived as your main number) and 5 or especially 7 inches.

You can drive generally without major problems in 3...even 4 inches, but amounts higher than that are harder to cope with and the speed of accumulation may have overwhelmed local DOTs.


I don't know what you said...but honestly. Did you think it would have been closer to 3 with isolated 5" reports? If that's what you thought...it may have come out that way. "3 with as much as 5 inches"...again 3 is easy to cope with, 5+ gets you in trouble...especially if it lasts several hours.

[niceweather]

I was hovering between the four and five inch range. Three was more likely south with rain mixing in...

[Bandit]

Niceweather ... you're assuming that the clowns in the newsroom knew that you forecast more than everyone else to begin with. In my career, I found a shocking number of producers and newswriters who assumed that what the AP wire said is what I said ... or believed that all forecasters said the same thing all the time.

Next time, answer their question with one of your own ... "How much snow did I forecast?" Turn it around on them and you may be surprised at the conversation that ensues.

[BSUStormChase]

Waco, it depends on where you live. 3" of snow around here will shut down the city for a day (if not more).

Heck, "heavy flurries" and the schools start to close around here.

[Almost Virga]

Niceweather ... you're assuming that the clowns in the newsroom knew that you forecast more than everyone else to begin with. In my career, I found a shocking number of producers and newswriters who assumed that what the AP wire said is what I said ... or believed that all forecasters said the same thing all the time.

Next time, answer their question with one of your own ... "How much snow did I forecast?" Turn it around on them and you may be surprised at the conversation that ensues.

This is so correct. These people hear forecasts all day on the radio and etc, and it is not atypical for them to forget what you said.

One day I forecasted a near opposite to the mainstream (I couldn't compare that day). It was quite a coup that only my weather comrades remembered. The newsies gave me crap all day. Just one of many examples.

[niceweather]

thanks for the responses. Nice to know I'm not the only one that has been in this situation.

[portinfru]

As you've just seen, it doesn't matter a lick what you actually said- even if you nailed snow totals to the tenth of an inch for a dozen different towns in your DMA.

All that matters is what people THINK you said... which might actually be what the competition said, what NWS said, or just some arbitrary idea that they decided you said.

Last week, we had our first snow that stuck... officially, it was 0.1" at the airport, less than an inch anywhere. I had used the term "a coating." Sounds right, doesn't it? But because it was the first snow and folks were driving like idiots, there were accidents... and the newsroom was instantly in panic mode, asking me "where did all this snow come from?"

So, how can you keep people off your back?

1. Ignore them (difficult)

2. Do what one of our competitors does... claim you were right after the fact, regardless of whether you actually were.

3. (my preference) a. If you were wrong, admit it. If they'll let you explain why, do so. If not, joke about it... 90% of folks will appreciate your honesty and humor. The other 10% have an axe to grind and aren't worth the effort.
b. Have your promotions people go back to your pre-event forecasts and match bites of your predictions with post-event bites of reporters or mets talking about the totals. Hard evidence is the only way to manage the misconceptions. Unfortunately, our promo department refuses to do this.

I struggle with this too in a very difficult area for snow forecasting. If others have ideas on dealing with this, I'd love to hear them.

[Bandit]

portinfru - You bring up several good points, and your post reminds me that part of being perceived "right" is how you cover the impact of a storm. There's a big difference between a 3" snow with few impacts on the roads and 1" that ices things up.

Part of being on point is letting the news department know the impact for them ahead of time (might they need extra crews? will there be lots of travel problems?). On the air ... emphasizing what the sensible impact of a storm will be for a person will have them thinking you are right ... whether or not the accumulations forecast were necessarily 100% correct.

[NoFoggyIdea]

Even when I alert the newsroom ahead of an event and tell them we need extra crews I am still chastised on the timing. If I say that we will see the rain switch to snow in the morning hours. . . I am then asked hour by hour when it is changing. I take the reporter back to the radar and show them the rain/snow line which is 10 miles away from the Metro and they still say that this sucks! I get asked a half hour later if it has moved and when I try to explain why it hasn't moved or has moved then I get the good ole, " Weathermen have the easiest job. . .you guys really have no idea what is going on blah blah blah." It gets under my skin but I just blow it off and decide that I am not going to allow someone's negative attitude because they want to "do something" to bother me.

[tvwxguy]

3. (my preference) a. If you were wrong, admit it.

Great Advice! We ALL miss... well, except for rdale, he's battin' 1.000. So long as you know *WHY* you missed and can explain it to whom ever cares.

Going back to missing by 2"... is it a bust? You betcha! That's why we don't forecast 3" or 4.5"... we'd ALWAYS bust. Predicting snowfall accum is one of the more difficult things to do, that's why we go with a range. Obviously, the more complex the system, the bigger the range. IMO, if you go 3-5", and you get 7", then technically it's a bust. Sure, you got the bottom line right, but it's still a bust.

:cheers:

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Is 2" a bust, no I'd say more like 36", if you know what I'm sayin'.
:withstupid:

[WisconsinWX]

I would say that just by knowing snow will accumulate you are already half right (unless it's a 100% sure thing with feet of snow in the forecast).

Once you get past that point, then you get scored for accuracy. News people don't seem to have a clue - and sometimes don't listen even for 10 seconds of a 1.5 hour morning show with 4 hours of cut-ins. Next time ask them what they forecasted for the storm.

I forecasted "around 3 inches" once last winter, and my co-anchor was ribbing me because we officially got 4. Talk about annoying. One thing I told him, though, was that at least he was listening... ;)

[rdale]

Great Advice! We ALL miss... well, except for rdale, he's battin' 1.000.

The season is young, my friend. I'm sure my numbers will come down eventually.

Maybe .800 :eek:

[catch22]

I forecasted "around 3 inches" once last winter, and my co-anchor was ribbing me because we officially got 4. Talk about annoying. One thing I told him, though, was that at least he was listening... ;)

The key word is "listening". We had a complex storm recently, snow but also lots of ice, etc. I forecasted for light snow to develop during the afternoon, with only LIGHT accumulation through the evening. The real precip would get going towards midnight. And what happens? I get an e-mail from a viewer: "What happened to all the snow we were supposed to get? We didn't go to church, and we stayed in all day instead of going to the mall! You people suck!"

I just didn't reply to the e-mail. But I would've said "Sir, had you actually LISTENED to me, you never would have canceled your plans." And that's the truth. I'm fighting the urge to think that all people are idiots LOL

[wx or not]

Best argument I ever had about snow forecasting came about eight or nine years ago. Photog and AND asked me what I felt was the accumulation of an upcoming storm. "About six inches, and ice will fall on top of that for about an hour."

Photog looks back at the AND and said "I told you so, you guys never listen to me, and NOW you've got proof!" The ND responded with "No proof! It hasn't happened yet, and besides, he's a weatherman. He's not GOD!"

I looked at the both of them incredulously. "What I do here is take vast amounts of data, compile them into something normal people will understand, and let them know what is going to happen. The newsroom is concerned with what has already happened. I mean, how difficult is that? You either report what happened or you don't. Simple. I've got to look to the future and try to report something that hasn't happened yet. Now tell me that I've got it easy!"

[Deuce]

I agree with the notion that perception is everything. We pound home the forecast and we have a weather blog so that it is all archived in case any viewer wants to go back and check your accuracy.

I went with a forecast of 2 to 4 inches for an overnight storm recently. Here are the reports from the airport for the overlapping two day event:

Day 1 = .25 water with 2.9" of snow
Day 2 = .05 water with 1.8" of snow

I measured 3.5", but a few folks phoned in inflated totals. If you couldn't figure out what happened between this two day period here is the clincher. The winds picked up significantly at midnight towards the end of the event, likely causing big time drifting before sunrise. If drifting didn't occur on that Day 2 report, then that would be a ratio of 36 to 1!!!

[slipstream]

People will always hear what they want to hear. And they always take the high end of the range.

[Hoser, eh?]

In some case, you could be right on the money and people will perceive that you busted.

Or miss the cold surge by a measly 50 miles... Such is the the difference between an inch of rain, an inch of ice, and a foot of snow. Forecasting winter precip in North Texas can be nigh on impossible because there's often a fine line between when the coldest air arrives and when the moisture cuts off, and even though the NW part of the DMA is a winter wonderland, if it didn't happen across the entire swath of DFW, then your cautious forecast gets ripped for being overhyped.

Yet, when you call for some severe (hey, it's spring, be ready anytime!) and you get garden variety storms, no one complains.

Perception is everything, eh?

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Great Advice! We ALL miss... well, except for rdale, he's battin' 1.000. So long as you know *WHY* you missed and can explain it to whom ever cares.

Going back to missing by 2"... is it a bust? You betcha! That's why we don't forecast 3" or 4.5"... we'd ALWAYS bust. Predicting snowfall accum is one of the more difficult things to do, that's why we go with a range. Obviously, the more complex the system, the bigger the range. IMO, if you go 3-5", and you get 7", then technically it's a bust. Sure, you got the bottom line right, but it's still a bust.

:cheers:

I wouldn't consider it a bust. Perhaps a little off, but not a bust. If I forecast a high of 65, it turns out to be 67, I don't consider it a bust, just a little off. Now if it turned to above 70 or so, I would consider that a bust. I think there's a difference between being a little off, and busting.:shifty: IMO.

[rdale]

In the end a bust is in the eye of the beholder... If you say 1" and get 3", that's probably an issue. 5 vs 7? Not really - impact is the same for those two. 65 vs 70, ehh, maybe.

Ask Miguel - his previous screenname was EuroNeverBusts :loveyou:

[wxdawg]

No,

Unless you are forecasting none, and you get two inches.

I agree if you forecast none and get 2", that's a bust.

It would appear your forecast was just fine seeing as snow measurement is a crap shoot at best don't sweet it too much!

[Bureau Chief]

Hell, where I live, less than 6 inches is just flurries and they dont even mention it in the forecast. Its just an accepted thing. "its winter in the great lakes, its gonna snow every day!" Tell them if they think they could do better, have at it.

[MIguel W foX]

Ask Miguel - his previous screenname was EuroNeverBusts :loveyou:

Long live the euro!!! :worship: :worship:

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

EURO-peein', I'm-a-peein', we all pee freely!