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sun dog
Dec 3rd 2007, 08:22 AM
Hotel Mogul Threatens Lawsuit Over Hurricane Expert's Gloomy Forecasts

Rosen: Fla. Lost Billions Of Dollars Because Of Incorrect Storm Outlook


POSTED: 5:11 pm EST November 29, 2007
UPDATED: 3:07 am EST December 1, 2007

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Central Florida's most famous hotel owner, Harris Rosen, lashed out at hurricane expert Dr. William Gray for his gloomy storm predictions saying they have damaged state tourism. Rosen said he believes Florida lost billions of dollars in business because of Gray's outlook and even threatened a lawsuit. "Look, doctor, you've made these forecasts and you were wrong once," Rosen said. "You made the forecast and you were wrong twice. Are you going to continue to make these forecasts?"

The hotel mogul said surveys show 70 percent of guests not returning to his hotels cited hurricane fears as the reason why. "I suspect it costs the state billions of dollars," Rosen said. "Five thousand people scheduled to attend my association meeting and I'm looking at Orlando and it is September or October, I may say, 'Why take a chance.'" Rosen said if people would stop paying attention to Gray, more people would come to Central Florida, Local 6's Chris Trenkmann said.

Other business owners are angry at Gray's predictions. John Smith, who runs Storm Stoppers, a plywood alternative company that has benefited from busy storm seasons, spends thousand of dollars when an active year is predicted. "What we do is stock up," Smith said. "When there is a let down, we have all of our capital invested in materials and you know, we have to wait until the next big weather event." More and more business owners said they prefer that prognosticators keep their outlooks to themselves. "A local meteorologist would not last as long as some of these prediction artists have been in business," Smith said.

Gray responded to Rosen's complaint, saying anytime there is a catastrophic hurricane season like in 2004, there will be a slowing down or hesitancy to return to Florida, Trenkmann reported. Gray, of Colorado State University, predicted 17 named storms with nine becoming hurricanes.

The 2007 storm count came short of Gray's predicted totals and no hurricanes came near Florida in 2007. The last time Central Floridians dealt with a major hurricane was in 2004. Hurricane season officially ends Friday. Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.

Bureau Chief
Dec 3rd 2007, 08:24 AM
Hehehehe I wonder if Grey has error and ommisions insurance coverage?? I was wondering how long it would be before someone shut him down.

kmfdmatt
Dec 3rd 2007, 05:39 PM
Let him sue. The general public needs to see more cases like this and see the plaintiffs laughed out of court.

once and for all, general public (and I don't mean the old band), pay attention: use forecasts (or outlooks, gists, guidelines, etc.) at your own risk. Furthermore, have weather-sensitive businesses at your own risk (like hotels in Florida). Especially if you pick and choose what you want to hear and get it for free, use forecasts at your own risk. If you pay for a forecast, find someone else better. If you think you can do it better, see you in 4.5 years after you've finished college without flunking out of freshman year and tell us how to do it better.

Great, now I need a beer....

mountain guru
Dec 3rd 2007, 06:12 PM
some of the "blame" for hyper expectations has to be placed on the "media". The media are complicit in taking one scientific outlook, (in reality a theory for the coming year) and turning it into a scary look ahead at what IS to come in the months ahead, because it makes good "copy". It gives TV stations and newspapers a chance to re-rack Katrina video and photos, so we can see.."what it might be like". The media take an outlook that shows what COULD be an above average season, turning that into "millions will suffer", and "billions of dollars will be lost".

If there is something in a storm outlook that can be construed in ANY way possible to support the theory of anthropogenic Global Warning, the media will hype it to the max. Plus the media assumes that if there ARE named storms, they will likely threaten the USA, so let's play it up.

If you think about the season that just ended, Gray's forecast (actually his research assistant's storm outlook) would have been considered genius if TWO CAT FIVE STORMS (Dean and Felix) had hit the US mainland rather than the islands of the Carribean and Central America. It would have also given the GW crowd more fuel for the flames they're still fanning.

So they legal question one would ask is, do you sue Gray....or the media for yelling "FIRE in the crowded theater"? Or is it due to the anxiety created by "Inconvenient Truth". HMMMMMM?

FACTS FROM NHC:
THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH SIX BECAME HURRICANES...WITH TWO OF THE HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED DURING THE YEAR. THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. IN TERMS OF THE NOAA ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...WHICH MEASURES THE COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES... THE SEASON HAD ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE 1951-2000 MEDIAN ACTIVITY... THE LOWEST OBSERVED SINCE 2002. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL ACTIVITY...TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851.

QG Theorist
Dec 3rd 2007, 07:12 PM
I don't recall Dr. Gray saying that any hurricanes would hit Florida. Sounds like the owner/public are making too many inferences with regard to the forecasts.

mountain guru
Dec 3rd 2007, 09:11 PM
It's the subtle hints on tv...showing video of Florida being boarded up, and waves crashing ashore and debris flying from previous storms, while talking about an "above average season" forecast by Dr. Gray's team... that instilled some fear in tourists... and it was not just the local TV stations hyping it up.... The networks were just as guilty in 2007.

Bandit
Dec 4th 2007, 03:34 AM
To me, it's like the nonsensical lawsuits that get filed accusing rock stars or video games of causing kids to kill. It's a forecast, people!

And Dr. Gray has total control on crafting the message he presents, but immediately loses that control after he disseminates the forecast. Factors including the editorial whims (or downright ignorance) of editors, reporters and the general public all come into play. And that's something I'm sure any met can relate to.

Somehow, I imagine Mr Rosen is doing quite well with his business - but if he wants to avoid the whims of the weather, he might think about opening hotels in places like Santa Fe or Flagstaff.

sleet10
Dec 4th 2007, 05:29 AM
Mountain: Your comments are right on, the MEDIA who we are a part of in all its glory will take a story put their own spin on it, spread it over the airwaves and there you have it, mass hysteria. On the other end, it can be said and I mentioned this in another thread that the business of long range forecasting (hurricanes) and insurance companies could be and I say could be in it together for the $$$$$. Maybe WACO who I believe went into derivatives could shed some light on this potential and just maybe I am way off base.

WxGuru
Dec 4th 2007, 08:16 AM
...and how many times have we all been off the top of the show just because there's a change in the weather? A dusting of snow creates a newscast full of blizzard and disaster, when getting an inch of snow is about the most we can expect.

Same goes for garden variety thunderstorms....no widespread outbreak....producers who try to turn giant hail and tornado outbreaks out of scattered showers.

MIguel W foX
Dec 4th 2007, 08:23 AM
...and how many times have we all been off the top of the show just because there's a change in the weather? A dusting of snow creates a newscast full of blizzard and disaster, when getting an inch of snow is about the most we can expect.

Same goes for garden variety thunderstorms....no widespread outbreak....producers who try to turn giant hail and tornado outbreaks out of scattered showers.
Do we work together? ;)