Hurricane predictions suck!

[vuphinder]

Now that the "all seeing" weather geeks have missed another hurricane season, when will we stop airing the predictions of the impending doomsday hurricane. How come they don't predict how many snowstorms or thunderstorms we will see in a year?
Maybe the newsies should report how much crime we will have in the coming year. "Officials predict that there will be 400 crimes committed against people this year....with 234 of those being violent crimes."
Let's just admit that we don't know...but always be prepared.

[sandwichpick]

Actually it's the newsies at my shop who take that prediction and blast it to high heaven. We generally stay away from putting numbers on how many hurricanes/tropical storms we will see in a year. Why don't you go talk to a producer? Or as you would put it "producer geek".

[From the Right]

Same situation for us. The forecast is released and the newsies immediately start inciting panic. "Forecasters say to expect the worst hurricane season ever......"

Meantime we spend the time trying to beat down the flames. It's a never ending battle we lose every season. Now everyone is saying, "looks like you guys blew another hurricane season" sigh.........

[PCTallyWakoBakoFresnoFreeSoFloBINY]

Should stop making up these forecasts so the media will stop reporting this crap. 3 years in a row now, that they've been dead wrong.

[Brick]

I predict a below normal interest in this thread.

2 Major Peeved responses

1 Smart-A$$ response (mine)

12 Named responses

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

That's going to be way wrong!:rockon:

[Brick]

I've got a few more chances to "tweak" the forecast as conditions permit. I'll issue a couple more reports before this thread's season is over.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Is that forecast official, or is it from Colorado State, or is that official...oh accuweather's is official? hmmm... I'm going to make up my own dumb seasonal forecast.

I actually did that last year as a joke, forecasting one storm for 2006, and that was probably closer to what happened.

[wx or not]

Has anyone noticed a slight change in the way that Hurricane Command spills out reports over the years? Used to be more of "there will be x number of hurricanes this year" that moved more to "we expect x number of hurricanes this year." Seems like they can then backpedal a bit and say, "Listen, we only said to EXPECT that many! It's not like you were really listening to us, were you?"

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I think you can make it look however you want...

Slightly above normal storms this year! (#)

or,

Well below average storms this year! (Accumulated Cyclone Energy)

[sleet10]

Think maybe the PREDICTORS and the insurance company's are in it together, might just be a little payoff here and there. Not sure how many of you caught the article about the former hurricand director chasitzing the new director for naming storms way to early, saying some these minimal tropical storms should have not been named. It is said that quiksat gives better detail to help with naming of storms, oh well, what the hell did we do back in the 30's when the last major peak occurred, humm we did not have sats, hell we didn't even have ships with upper air soundings, could there have been many more storms that were not named?

Looking forward to the next predictions to see how high insurance rates can go for the people in the hurricance prone areas. Another of my rants.

[Brick]

Think maybe the PREDICTORS and the insurance company's are in it together, might just be a little payoff here and there.

I agree.

http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/ali2.jpg

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Think maybe the PREDICTORS and the insurance company's are in it together, might just be a little payoff here and there. Not sure how many of you caught the article about the former hurricand director chasitzing the new director for naming storms way to early, saying some these minimal tropical storms should have not been named. It is said that quiksat gives better detail to help with naming of storms, oh well, what the hell did we do back in the 30's when the last major peak occurred, humm we did not have sats, hell we didn't even have ships with upper air soundings, could there have been many more storms that were not named?

Looking forward to the next predictions to see how high insurance rates can go for the people in the hurricance prone areas. Another of my rants.

If you look at the timeline, there's a pretty solid increase in the number and strenght of tropical storms just after satellite technology came out in the late 60s, then even more once better technology came out later. Coinsidence?

[CyclonesWxMan]

I personally prefer this tinfoil hat man...

http://thecoming.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/tin_foil_hat_1.jpg

[MI_Wxman]

For Immediate Release
November 19, 2007
For information, contact: 713-529-3076
WERE ALL OF THE 2007 ATLANTIC CYCLONES REALLY TROPICAL OR HAVE THE TROPICAL STORM GUIDELINES CHANGED?

Weather Research Center’s OCSI 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast Verifies Houston – According to meteorologists at Houston based Weather Research Center, there were six storms named this year that most likely would not have been named in the past. Twenty to thirty years ago, the central pressure was the key element used to
determined if a tropical cyclone got a name.

Many of the named storms this year had
minimum central pressures of 1000 mb or more and only brief periods when the winds were tropical storm force. Taking this into account, there most likely would have been
six fewer storms this year dropping the 13 named tropical cyclones and 1 sub tropical storm to seven. WRC was the only organization that was forecasting for a below
normal season by forecasting seven named tropical cyclone with four of these cyclones intensifying into hurricanes.

The actual numbers, discounting the six storms that would
not have been named in past years, were seven named tropical storms with five of these intensifying into hurricanes, which verifies WRC 2007 forecast.
There have only been nine years since 1871 when there were more than 14 named storms during a season. Weather Research Center’s meteorologist Jill F. Hasling
expressed that, “There have only been eight years since 1871 that have had 10 named storms after September 1.” [1887 had 12 storms, 1949 had 10, 1953 had 10, 1961 had 10, 1969 had 12, 2000 had 10, 2001 had 11 and 2005 had 18.] That gives us a 5% chance in any year of having 10 named storms in a year, which is what we need to reach a total of 15 named storms for the season.
There were nine named storms after September 1 with four of these storms being questioned whether they should have been named at all. The hurricanes were
Hurricanes Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel. According to the official National Hurricane Season summary, there were 13 named tropical storms and 1 sub-tropical storm. Weather Research Center meteorologist Jill F. Hasling doubts that all 13 of these storms were “tropical” and most likely during past seasons, the following storms would not have been named or at best would have been sub-tropical storms.

Questionable named storms for 2007 were Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Ingrid, Jerry, and Melissa. If you remove these doubtful storms then there were only seven tropical
cyclones in the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

2
1. Tropical Storm Barry – June 1 - 2
2. Hurricane Dean – August 13 - 23
3. Hurricane Felix – August 31 - September 5
4. Hurricane Humberto – September 12 - 14
5. Tropical Storm Karen – September 25 - 30
6. Hurricane Lorenzo – September 25 - 28
7. Hurricane Noel – 28 October – November 2

Weather Research Center’s (WRC) Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] was developed
to indicate which section of the US coast line has the highest risk of experiencing a
tropical storm or hurricane. The sections of the US coast with the highest risk in 2007
were from Brownsville, Texas to Key West, Florida, which had a 66% chance of
experiencing a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane. This forecast verified with the
landfalls of Tropical Storm Barry and Hurricane Humberto. The 2007 Hurricane Season
forecast verified with Tropical Storm Barry making landfall along the western Florida
coast and Hurricane Humberto making landfall at the Texas/Louisiana border.
2007 WRC OCSI LANDFALL RISK FORECAST FOR THE UNITED STATES COAST
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY OBSERVED
Mexico 33% 40% Lorenzo
Texas 66% 51% Humberto
Louisiana to Alabama 66% 59% Humberto
West Florida 66% 71% Barry
East Florida 10% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 33% 56%
East Coast of US 10% 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88% Humberto
Other 2007 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:
Forecast Observed Corrected
Observed
Number of Named Storms: 7 13 (7)
Number of Storm Days: 22 32 (28)
Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4 5
Number of Hurricane Days: 19 11
US Landfalls: 3 3
Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 67% Dean, Felix
WRC’s forecast for 2007 and 2008 was complicated by determining when the sun spot
minimum would occur. So far the minimum has not occurred and is predicted to occur
in March 2008 which would make 2008 the year of the sun spot minimum. However, if
the monthly sun spot count starts to increase in the next few months and occurs in
2007, then the forecast for 2007 would have been different and would have been similar
to the current outlook for 2008.
3
2008 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Mexico 40% 40%
Texas 40% 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 60% 59%
West Florida 70% 71%
East Florida 40% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 90% 56%
East Coast of US 60% 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88%
Other 2008 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:
OCSI Forecasts
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Storm Days: 83
Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 5
Number of Hurricane Days: 24
US Landfalls: 4
Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%
The OCSI was developed by Houston meteorologists Dr. John C. Freeman and Jill F.
Hasling. This index has been used since 1984 to make annual hurricane season
forecasts of which section of the North American coast has the highest risk of
experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.
The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that
make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike
Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to
predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based
on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation
pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital
influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.
During the 24-year period from 1984 to 2007, there have only been three years (1987,
1992, and 1999) when a storm or hurricane did not make landfall in the section of the
United States coastline that had the highest risk. In all three of these years, cyclones
made landfall in the section of the coast with the second highest risk. This gives the
OCSI an 87.5% accuracy rate.
In addition to its ongoing research, WRC also provides storm and hurricane information
via the Internet through Storm Navigator®. This service helps provide detailed storm
updates and related information. WRC’s current and past predictions can be found at
www.wxresearch.com/outlook.
Founded in 1987, the non-profit Weather Research Center manages a worldwide
forecasting operation and provides groundbreaking research to scientists around the
world. Meteorologists provide tropical cyclone advisories world wide, severe weather
advisories, marine forecasts, long-range outlooks, environmental studies and forensic
meteorology services. Weather Research Center provides research into tropical
4
cyclones as well as real-time weather forecasts. WRC can also provide you with an
assessment of your severe weather and tropical weather plans.
President Jill F. Hasling is a Fellow and Certified Consulting Meteorologist from the
American Meteorological Society as well as a member of the National Council of
Industrial Meteorologists.
For more information about The John C. Freeman Weather Museum at Weather
Research Center, please call (713) 529-3076 or logon to www.wxresearch.org.
###

The John C. Freeman Weather Museum
at Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline Street
Houston, TX 77004
Phone: 713-529-3076
Fax: 713-528-3538
www.wxresearch.com
www.wxresearch.org
wrc@wxresearch.org

Someone got it right!

[rdale]

Lawsuit threatened based on Gray's bad forecasting:

http://www.local6.com/news/14730306/detail.html

[forecastguy]

Forecasting amounts of hurricanes in a given ocean basin in any given year is a USELESS science!

:frustrated:

Let's assume for a moment that the forecasts were reasonably accurate... There's not really anything the average viewer can do with that information. It serves no value.

Seriously, what do you do as a viewer, a tourist, a home-owner, etc. armed with the knowledge that your region has a 12% chance of getting hit with a hurricane next year instead of the climatological norm of 9%?

:doh:

So... Why do we continue to report these forecast numbers as unchallenged, gospel truth? Better yet, why do we report these numbers on the news at all?

:confused:

[sun dog]

Forecasting amounts of hurricanes in a given ocean basin in any given year is a USELESS science!


And particularly because there is no relationship b/t totals and risk, as was shown for opposite reasons in 1992 and 1995.

[nywx10]

Forecasting amounts of hurricanes in a given ocean basin in any given year is a USELESS science!

:frustrated:

Let's assume for a moment that the forecasts were reasonably accurate... There's not really anything the average viewer can do with that information. It serves no value.

Seriously, what do you do as a viewer, a tourist, a home-owner, etc. armed with the knowledge that your region has a 12% chance of getting hit with a hurricane next year instead of the climatological norm of 9%?

:doh:

So... Why do we continue to report these forecast numbers as unchallenged, gospel truth? Better yet, why do we report these numbers on the news at all?

:confused:
Amen :frustrated:

[nywx10]

Think maybe the PREDICTORS and the insurance company's are in it together, might just be a little payoff here and there. ......

Looking forward to the next predictions to see how high insurance rates can go for the people in the hurricance prone areas. Another of my rants.

This is no different than using a seasonal outlook for above normal temps or below normal temps, to drive up gas and/or oil futures which in turn inflate the price that we pay for such commodities.:mad:

[Ping-Pong Ball]

So... Why do we continue to report these forecast numbers as unchallenged, gospel truth? Better yet, why do we report these numbers on the news at all?



Because you've got to fill the newscast with something. After all, Ms. Spears, Paris, and the other newsworthy individuals that fill our air waves take an occasional day off to sober up. Plus, you can show a squirrel watering skiing only so many times before the novelty wears off. (On second thought, I take that back about the squirrel.)

Let's face it, news has been dumbed down to sensationalist rubbish. Heck the majority of science stories reported on newscasts seem to replace science with what the majority of popular public opinion thinks. But that's a rant for another thread.

The big thing to remember is how easy the viewer or general public can lump a prediction to everyone in the business regardless of if you are or aren't a part of it. It's this kind of narrow-mindedness of the mindless-masses that has killed credibility in the business.

Seals or tests or more schooling won't fix this problem. The only cure is to change the popular public opinion of the mindless masses, but this will never happen because people today don't want to have to think when they watch TV.

Plus, in today's narcissistic society where one's own opinion makes them an expert on everything, companies are afraid people would rather b!tch rather then actually comprehend what is being broadcast during the newscast if the news content, including the weather is too serious. So we indulge them with superbulous eye candy. This keeps the ratings up & and the gluttny filled viewer happy.

[MOCR]

I predict a below normal interest in this thread.

2 Major Peeved responses

1 Smart-A$$ response (mine)

12 Named responses

Does this topic even meet the criteria for a "thread"? Perhaps "Topic of Semi-Interest", but an actual thread? I think the blocking ridge of The Breakfast Club will keep this topic far from any thread landfall...

[MOCR]

I also forgot to ask, where can I get a list of names for Threads this season?

My Google search for Saffir-Simpson Thread scale also came up short...

[tvweather]

Seriously, what do you do as a viewer, a tourist, a home-owner, etc. armed with the knowledge that your region has a 12% chance of getting hit with a hurricane next year instead of the climatological norm of 9%?

So... Why do we continue to report these forecast numbers as unchallenged, gospel truth? Better yet, why do we report these numbers on the news at all?

:confused:


It's the same reason you say a 20 percent chance of rain rather than a 100 percent. If it is going to rain, just say it is going to rain! How many of your viewers have been pissed that you say 60 percent chance of rain, and it turns out to be totally sunny?

obviously guys, think about it. We do it day in and day out, it just so happens that forecasting rain is not as life changing as forecasting tropical activity...since the tropics has a more widspread impact. But, don't go bashing the hurricane forecasts when you can't get your own local forecast correct everyday of the year!

[wxdawg]

Number of storms in the Atlantic Basin does not equal a good or bad hurricane season.

The strength and local does! I’ve done three blogs on this because news people including the networks, AP, Cable news all write story lines that a lot of storms equals a bad season.

Just flat out wrong!

Something to ponder.....

1998 there were 14 named storms and not one hurricane hit the US.

1992 7 named storms formed with only one hurricane hitting the US.


Which season was worse in your opinion?




I’d bet most people who live in South Florida and South Central Louisiana would say 1992 the year hurricane Andrew hit!!!!!!


Numbers of storms are meaningless unless they impact people and more selfishly the US.

I also look a tropical cyclone days which to me is a much better way to measure seasons instead of named storms since NHC will name a thunderstorm over the gulf if they get bored! IMO

[forecastguy]

It's the same reason you say a 20 percent chance of rain rather than a 100 percent. If it is going to rain, just say it is going to rain! How many of your viewers have been pissed that you say 60 percent chance of rain, and it turns out to be totally sunny?

obviously guys, think about it. We do it day in and day out, it just so happens that forecasting rain is not as life changing as forecasting tropical activity...since the tropics has a more widspread impact. But, don't go bashing the hurricane forecasts when you can't get your own local forecast correct everyday of the year!


Bzzzt.... Wrong answer.

People can, and do, frequently alter their plans based on a 60% chance of rain vs. a 20% chance of rain tomorrow. Even with seasonal outlooks, there are things that farmers, energy companies, and even you as a consumer can do armed with the info that there is a better than average chance of below normal temperatures this winter, or that it will be a drier summer. But tell me one thing that viewers will do differently with a forecast that this will be a slightly above or below normal hurricane season...

This is not about forecasts being right or wrong... It is about the forecasts being totally irrelevant.