Ice Storm- Dec. 1 and 2

[SevereClear]

Anyone else notice the indications of an ice storm from Missouri to the Ohio Valley for this weekend? That could get tricky!

[cuontv]

Cold air in place...good overrunning moisture....need to watch vertical atmospheric temp. profile....looks interesting. No more winter wx for us for a while

[WXAccuracy#1]

This is really getting interesting... but difficult to forecast. On one hand you have the ECMWF with its warm solution, the GFS with a 12Z cold, 18Z milder solution... and a DGEX that is a bit farther south.

It may not happen, but I enjoy watching the models progress and see the interesting probabilities come and go in the process.

The next couple days will be very interesting to say the least.

[Mayhem]

Watching here too... I agree that we will have plenty of cold air at the lower levels, and warm air intrusion at the higher levels. Certainly bears watching, but there is no model consistency.

[rdale]

GFS just makes no sense with the way it messes with the low, Euro looks much more reliable and not showing any indication of ice let alone a storm...

[newsnweathernsports]

Yea, watching real close here too, of course after last year's ice storm that crippled the Springfield area, the slight mention of ice puts people on edge!

[vortex]

The model solutions are all over the place.....I HOPE THEY ARE ALL WRONG!!!!...I vote for sunny and 70.....Hee Hee

[baldingwxguy]

So far I haven't seen anything that makes me concerned for the Ozarks.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Balding and Lighty, quasi same team right?

[wx or not]

I'm with rdale on this one. I'm ignoring GFS (too scattered), but Euro has nothing to note.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I don't know, GFS a little more consistent now, EURO might be a little warm, especially if the shallow cold air can stay in place. However, like Balding said, doesn't look like much of a threat for S. Mo, IL, or IN, perhaps northern Midwest. Unlike what rdale said, EURO does have a developing surface low moving through, perhaps a little later, but going along with the low development per GEM and GFS, hopefully bringing me rain early monday. Perhaps not an well evolved storm, but a low.

<<I would hate to say anything against rdale though, usually doesn't end up well>>

[baldingwxguy]

Balding and Lighty, quasi same team right?

Yeah, sort of. A bit weird, honestly. Competition, but not really. (:shifty: )
I haven't met Kevin yet (hello Kevin, nice to "meet" you), but plans are in the works to combine the two facilities.

[newsnweathernsports]

Haha Yea! Hey Brandon! Yea it's "different" but hey all of us just do our thing right! I'm sure I'll see ya at the company xmas party, haha!

[inthefog]

Ok, there is clearly the NAM's history of performing well with shallow cold air vs. the GFS better performance on longer range forecasting, but this is ridiculous. Worse, every model run it's the same for both of them one is going very bad ice storm and the other a very warm rain!

THE NAM:
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||CumSR|TotS IR| ICE |TotI QPF | Tqpf
071202/0000Z 84 10012KT 28F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.1 1:1| 0.02|0.68 0.020| 0.48

THE GFS:

071202/0000Z 84 20018KT 64F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0:1| 0.00|0.00 0.012| 0.48

:frustrated: At least the QPF is the same! And yes, these are for the same location!

[MIguel W foX]

Ok, there is clearly the NAM's history of performing well with shallow cold air vs. the GFS better performance on longer range forecasting, but this is ridiculous. Worse, every model run it's the same for both of them one is going very bad ice storm and the other a very warm rain!

THE NAM:
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||CumSR|TotS IR| ICE |TotI QPF | Tqpf
071202/0000Z 84 10012KT 28F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.1 1:1| 0.02|0.68 0.020| 0.48

THE GFS:

071202/0000Z 84 20018KT 64F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0:1| 0.00|0.00 0.012| 0.48

:frustrated: At least the QPF is the same! And yes, these are for the same location!

Rob says he is still going with the late weekend euro! Nothin!:rockon:

[inthefog]

Rob says he is still going with the late weekend euro! Nothin!:rockon:

I don't know how it working for you in the Great Lakes, but the euro has been next to worthless this year in the Central Plains. Which is too bad...it used to be good. Do you know if they have changed the coding on it?

[Brick]

Latest runs of the WRF and Euro are painting a fun picture over Iowa, Wisconsin and southern Minnesota between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Precip type is going to be awfully hard to nail with change from snow to sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Yuck.

[CyclonesWxMan]

I've noticed that GFS tends to push the low track northward as time goes along... that is, when the storm shown as five days away, the low moves through one area, but when it's three days away, the forecast track has moved maybe 200 miles north. I noticed it last winter a handful of times and a couple times this fall. Am I off my rocker?

[PTP WX]

Latest runs of the WRF and Euro are painting a fun picture over Iowa, Wisconsin and southern Minnesota between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Precip type is going to be awfully hard to nail with change from snow to sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Yuck.

Brick,

Are you watching my forecast?:p

I feel bad for all you "southerners", move north far enough and you don't have to worry about mix much! Actually, I am watching for my southern ADI getting some mix to rain..... or TS+? We'll see!

[Ping-Pong Ball]

Aren't we supposed to be in a La Nina? Kind of unusual to have a big upper level low move ashore from off the southern coast of California which then spawns a surface low once it goes over the Rockies thus bringing mayhem to the upper Midwest with its influx of gulf moisture, isn't it? Maybe it's the crack I've been smoking, but this big storm just doesn't seem to fit the typical La Nina pattern.

[Brick]

You're on to something or you're on to something. The series of cold airmasses with no real end doesn't seem to match the La Nina "norm" either.

This storm is going to make a mess of things. I'm beginning to think we'll see more snow than what's being hinted at now, but I still can't bring myself to even type what I'm thinking as far as amounts go much less blather on about it tonight.

[kmfdmatt]

It's not a normal La Nina, but isn't it supposed to take a little while longer before the westerlies finally take that configuation (i.e. waiting longer for the effects to kick in)?

Nonetheless, the ENSO is not the only oscillation on earth to examine. You always have to monitor the NAO.

Back to the ice storm (or potential storm), it's still pretty bizarre how it wants to begin as a big slug of moisture slamming into Baja and riding up over the desert into the Plains...

[baldingwxguy]

Latest runs of the WRF and Euro are painting a fun picture over Iowa, Wisconsin and southern Minnesota between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Precip type is going to be awfully hard to nail with change from snow to sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Yuck.

LOL! Welcome to the challenge of every winter storm in the Ozarks! This one looks like it will leave us alone--in fact my original forecast for a wet Saturday may well be too pessimistic.

[Brick]

It's been an issue with the majority of storms we've had in MN over the last few years too, but yeah...you've definitely got more of a precip-type challenge down in your neck of the woods.

[wx or not]

Here I was, all prepared to give the doom and gloom forecast, reread the GFS, discarded most of the Euro, then changed my mind and went back. I give up and from now on I'm only predicting falling hamsters!:)

[rdale]

Newest GFS is _identical_ to what Canadian GEM has been showing all week long...

[Ping-Pong Ball]

This storm is going to make a mess of things. I'm beginning to think we'll see more snow than what's being hinted at now, but I still can't bring myself to even type what I'm thinking as far as amounts go much less blather on about it tonight.

Besides the copious amounts of moisture this beast will have feeding into it, my gut is telling me that the models are a tad bit on the conservative side with the surface winds.

As the surface low deepens, I wouldn't be surprised if parts of your neck of the woods have 35+ mph winds for over 3 consecutive hours.

With all the warm, moist air being sucked in Saturday night, it'll be interesting to see if quarter to half inch of ice accumulates on top off all the snow that has fallen at rates of 1"-3" an hour on Saturday afternoon.

At least if the ice does come, it'll fall on top of the snow. Nothing worse for shoveling or snow blowing then when the ice come first before the snow. Of course, the over-achieving shovelers might make a huge mistake of clearing their driveways too soon on Saturday. It sucks when you've removed all the snow, so the freezing rain has a nice pristine driveway to glaze over.

[Pdogs08]

***THIS WAS A POST FROM YESTERDAY, I DECIDED TO JUST THROW IT IN THIS DISCUSSION INSTEAD OF TAKING UP SPACE***

Thanks for taking time to read my post, first off.

As you all know, a big storm will be pushing from southwest to northeast across the Contiguous United States this weekend into early next week. I have been monotoring this one fairly closely, just by looking at some model maps and trying to pick up some stuff on it (not as closely as many of you I'm sure) and trying to gain more knowledge towards these things themselves, and I do obviously notice it will become a fairly powerful storm.

The GFS model, atleast as of Wednesday Evening, tops the low out at 973 milliobars just north of Maine. GFS also shows most intensification of the low early Monday when it is progged to be near Lake Huron to when it moves to just north of Lake Superior later that day (Monday). In this span, GFS takes it from a 994 to a 981 mb low.

That being said, it will be an awfuly intense low as you know generally over the Northeast early next week. With plenty of moisture with such a strong storm, a favorable NW flow setting up, do you guys believe a big lake effect event is setting up, even for the secondary snowbelts like my locale (Youngstown,OH.) Sorry if this is an obvious question, and common sense leads one to believe there will be heavy bands setting up- I was just curious to know if anyone had any more specfic details on this yet. All elements appear to be in place, espically if a shortwave or two can rotate down in the cylonic flow in this time...

Thanks in advance for any feedback offered.

Also, with a moderatly strong low, and my young weather life, it got me wondering- what is the record for the ''deepest low''. Im not speaking off lowest pressure, as a tornado likely holds that record, but deepest storm system. Or the deepest during your careers...

Thanks again- just on a side note, I sure would have liked to see this low track about 2 or 300 miles south of its forecasted track. That would be alot of fun, for myself in my area atleast.

Thanks and have a great one

[Ping-Pong Ball]

Also, with a moderatly strong low, and my young weather life, it got me wondering- what is the record for the ''deepest low''. Im not speaking off lowest pressure, as a tornado likely holds that record, but deepest storm system. Or the deepest during your careers...



I believe it was the Cleveland Superbomb from January 26, 1978, observed pressure at Cleveland was 958 millibars. If it's still the record, that would be the lowest ever recorded in the United States outside of a hurricane.

[Mayhem]

The GFS has been continually trending to lower QPF in PA and NY. I'm starting to back away here and think the worst will be near Wisc, and then Maine.

[Pdogs08]

Wow, 958 mb! In January in Cleveland, I would have loved too see those winds kicking up.

Anyone by chance know what the Thanksgiving Blizzard of '50 low was?

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Newest GFS is _identical_ to what Canadian GEM has been showing all week long...

Nearly vice/versa though. They been very close together on many events this year.

[CyclonesWxMan]

Looks like the latest GFS is nudging the low about 70 miles south... GFS ensembles showing similar tracks but differing timing...

[Klinger]

I believe it was the Cleveland Superbomb from January 26, 1978, observed pressure at Cleveland was 958 millibars. If it's still the record, that would be the lowest ever recorded in the United States outside of a hurricane.

We win for the non-tropical record at 957.67mb (28.28") after the storm fell 40mb in 24 hours.

The storm record is 950mb (28.05") over Lake Huron!!

We're still proud of the 28.28" reading...maybe I'll have some t-shirts made up...

DTX-NWS has an awesome article for pleasure reading

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/blizzard1978.php

[rdale]

Nearly vice/versa though. They been very close together on many events this year.

What I'm saying is the GFS earlier this week sucked, now it's coming in line with the GEM and EC which have been pretty consistent on it.

But then again, facts don't change your mind :loveyou:

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

We must have been looking at different runs or something, it seems to the GFS has been pretty consistent with this...perhaps more so for us, and I put some of that confidence in other areas. Who knows. It's felt like the others have come to the GFS.

[rdale]

Gotcha. Sunday and Monday the GFS had the low moving across Tennessee and then splitting off over VA and bringing major ice to the Ohio River area along with massive snow to MI. All along the GEM & EC brought the low of Michigan with mixed precip.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

GFS just makes no sense with the way it messes with the low, Euro looks much more reliable and not showing any indication of ice let alone a storm...

I'm just saying.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I do remember the GFS overdoing it, with cold air too far south, but in my opinion, not to bad all in all.

ok, I'm done. Peace be with you. ***and with you***

[rdale]

Dude - temps are going to be in the FIFTIES and SIXTIES all through the event for the Ohio River area, even on the GFS now, so if you're holding out for that IN/OH/PA ice storm I think you'll be waiting for another event :confused:

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I was never focusing so much on the Ohio River Valley, as much as, the upper Midwest. Northern Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, and north. I never changed from that.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I don't know, GFS a little more consistent now, EURO might be a little warm, especially if the shallow cold air can stay in place. However, like Balding said, doesn't look like much of a threat for S. Mo, IL, or IN, perhaps northern Midwest. Unlike what rdale said, EURO does have a developing surface low moving through, perhaps a little later, but going along with the low development per GEM and GFS, hopefully bringing me rain early monday. Perhaps not an well evolved storm, but a low.

<<I would hate to say anything against rdale though, usually doesn't end up well>>

This is what was said earlier. I really have wavered.

[inthefog]

Where are able to see the GEM output that's not restricted? I'd like to see more of that one. Earlier this week, the EC had no surface forming until east of us in Kansas and we would have no precip here at all. All along the GFS had an ice storm or the edge of the ice storm painted for us.

I wonder if the EC has a better regional performance. It used to be my model of choice, but lately it is not handling the "just past the mountains" zone very well at all.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Anyways...

I wish you all the best of luck up there this weekend. As tv and I were talking earlier about, seems like quite the mixed bag for many folks. Wish I could be there for the challenge. I know it's never easy right near that frisky 32 line and shallow, psuedo artic air.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

Where are able to see the GEM output that's not restricted? I'd like to see more of that one. Earlier this week, the EC had no surface forming until east of us in Kansas and we would have no precip here at all. All along the GFS had an ice storm or the edge of the ice storm painted for us.

I wonder if the EC has a better regional performance. It used to be my model of choice, but lately it is not handling the "just past the mountains" zone very well at all.

www.wxforecaster.com (http://www.wxforecaster.com) = free

penn state's ewall = free

I found one site with the japan that's free too...don't have it on me though, and i'm not really familiar with it's performance.

...I agree with your analysis of model perfomance from earlier this week.

[rdale]

Where are able to see the GEM output that's not restricted? I'd like to see more of that one.

On their website is a quick form to fill out, then you can get the hi-res GEM (regional and global)

It can be a commercial entity too - I used my WLNS address.

Another good one (not sure what resolution they use though): http://meteocentre.com/models/

[inthefog]

On their website is a quick form to fill out, then you can get the hi-res GEM (regional and global)

It can be a commercial entity too - I used my WLNS address.

Another good one (not sure what resolution they use though): http://meteocentre.com/models/
Thanks!

[MIguel W foX]

GFS just makes no sense with the way it messes with the low, Euro looks much more reliable and not showing any indication of ice let alone a storm...
I'm going with this on my 6 day! :party:

[rdale]

I'm going with this on my 6 day! :party:

:withstupid:

Remember, that showed a major ice storm SOUTH OF MICHIGAN :moon:

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

At least it had a storm right :D

[rdale]

If the GFS ever didn't have a major storm in the 4-7 day timeframe, I'd be worried :D

[Pdogs08]

Anyone concerned with the lake effect snow on the backside of this storm, espically for downwind of Erie and Ontario?

AccuWeather is spitting out up to 24 inches in these areas between Monday and Tuesday.

I like the dynamics for this, strong system with plenty of moisture coming down over the Lakes, cold upper temps, (espically if you look at the GFS), and any peices of energy which may rotate down behind the main low enhancing the bands. One thing that does concern me, and I could be wrong, but with such a strong low producing such strong upper (and surface, at that) winds on its backside for this area, the moisture may not have as much time to sit over the lakes and condense into snowfall. Thats the only real limting factor I could find.

Certainly looks like the secondary belts of OH, PA and NY could pick up a few inches as well Monday into Tuesday with the NW allignment, as opposed to WNW or W, as you know.

Another slight question is how fast does ridging build in from the SW Tuesday cutting off the lake effect or pushing it back into the waters.

It will be interesting.

[forecastguy]

Anyone concerned with the lake effect snow on the backside of this storm, espically for downwind of Erie and Ontario?

AccuWeather is spitting out up to 24 inches in these areas between Monday and Tuesday.

I like the dynamics for this, strong system with plenty of moisture coming down over the Lakes, cold upper temps, (espically if you look at the GFS), and any peices of energy which may rotate down behind the main low enhancing the bands. One thing that does concern me, and I could be wrong, but with such a strong low producing such strong upper (and surface, at that) winds on its backside for this area, the moisture may not have as much time to sit over the lakes and condense into snowfall. Thats the only real limting factor I could find.

Certainly looks like the secondary belts of OH, PA and NY could pick up a few inches as well Monday into Tuesday with the NW allignment, as opposed to WNW or W, as you know.

Another slight question is how fast does ridging build in from the SW Tuesday cutting off the lake effect or pushing it back into the waters.

It will be interesting.

As a general rule, people here are not "concerned" with lake-effect snow in Youngstown. Furthermore, they are probably even less concerned with what Accuweather is forecasting.

That being said, looks like main fetch of winds will be 290-300 degrees in NE OH/NW PA. That's not particularly favorable in NE OH. Slightly better in NW PA... But really, the most favorable area will be "ski country" in SW NY where not only is it oragraphically favorable, but the Huron fetch will contribute.

Negative factors for NE OH:
Length of fetch
Strong 850mb winds limiting lake-moisture content
Significant speed shear

[Pdogs08]

I hate to get off subject too much, however I find it interesting that this storm will put the entire Great Lakes Region and East into the dead of of winter this week.

Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, windy, cloudy, periodic bursts of snow. The Clipper Wednesday could cause some problems.

NW flow already kicked in and its only early December.

Who was calling for the mild/wet winter for this part of the country, again? (Just joking, still plenty of time for that)

[Legomyego]

000
Nwus53 Kgrb 020331
Lsrgrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay Wi
931 Pm Cst Sat Dec 01 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0920 Pm Snow Pittsville 44.45n 90.13w
12/01/2007 M7.8 Inch Wood Wi Trained Spotter

All Freezing Frizzle.

[sandwichpick]

Shizzle.

[Quagmire]

Skeet.

[Brick]

000
Nwus53 Kgrb 020331
Lsrgrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay Wi
931 Pm Cst Sat Dec 01 2007

..time... ...event... ...city Location... ...lat.lon...
..date... ....mag.... ..county Location..st.. ...source....
..remarks..

0920 Pm Snow Pittsville 44.45n 90.13w
12/01/2007 M7.8 Inch Wood Wi Trained Spotter

All Freezing Frizzle.

Was this the time or the place? ;)

[Bureau Chief]

Well the fun and games began in NW PA at about 10 pm saturday night. On the way home from the station, snow showers....and I do mean showers..not squalls, were coming through. Stupid ass drivers were in ditches all over the place. I guess it takes a few storms before they remember how to drive in snow again. Got about 3 inches out of it before the rain change over. I for one AM concerned about lake effect here for monday-tuesday. I got to drive to Youngstown in that stuff.