West Texas Winter Storm

[cuontv]

From my Blog:


Chief Met. Dan Edwards
4:17pm Wednesday
Code Yellow Continues.....

Good day,

We continue to track a very strong cold front at this hour. As of now, we are expecting this front to blow through the area between the hours of 3am (NW Counties) and 8am (SE Counties). Temperatures will be the near 60 degrees before front, with falling temperatures throughout the day Wednesday. By Thanksgiving morning, readings will be near freezing. Bundle up!

As Thanksgiving Day moves forward, clouds will start to increase out and ahead of a weak upper level disturbance. Overnight and into Friday morning, this disturbance 'MAY' squeeze out areas of light rain or snow. Right now, we are not looking for any travel problems.

Friday will be a cloudy and cold day, with highs in the lower 40s. By Friday night, a stronger disturbance will be diving into the southern Rockies. As it continues to slowly approach West Texas, areas of precipitation will increase into Saturday morning through midday Sunday. Depending on the track of the disturbance, the temperature and thickness of the cold air, will depend on how messy it might get across the Big Country. We DO know 'TWO' things for sure. One, your travels to your Thanksgiving destinations will be fine as far as the roads are concerned. It's your trek home that concerns me a bit. Two, It will be a heck of a lot 'COLDER' Wednesday through Sunday, with highs in the 30's and 40s. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

As more data comes in closer the the 'MAIN' event, forecasts will continue to be updated. Please look for our 'OFFICIAL' prediction on 'POSSIBLE' wintry precipitation amounts to come out by Friday....late afternoon.

Please check back to bigcountryhomepage.com for further updates or watch KTAB News....Coverage You Can Count On!

Thanks,
Dan Edwards

PS...Winter Code explanation:
Code Yellow = Make a mental note.....if might happen!
Code Orange = Plan on it happening....no 'MAJOR' Road Problems
Code Red.....It 'WILL' happen....travel is discouraged

[Tornadocane]

Don't know how much of a "winter storm" it'll be considering that the ground temps are still holding at 70 degrees. Snow..possible...accumulations...probably not (except on bridges and overpasses)

[cuontv]

Nothing in stone Cane......Its a BIG travel weekend....need to be weather aware....temps will be in the 30s for 72 hours before the POSSIBLE onset of a wintry mess....we will see who wins! Best of luck bro!

[QG Theorist]

Don't know how much of a "winter storm" it'll be considering that the ground temps are still holding at 70 degrees. Snow..possible...accumulations...probably not (except on bridges and overpasses)

If it snows hard enough, the ground temps won't be that big of a player. That said, the cold front is already through Amarillo and the snow isn't expected to begin for another 48 hours at the earliest. Granted the bulk of the snow may be farther south, but this cold front will help precondition the area. Besides, our soil temps aren't even close to 70 here.

[Tornadocane]

I was just referring to "The Big Country". And yes, nothing set in stone just yet..still a ways away. Im still thinking that while we will get the cold air and the snow...the accumulations won't be as great..maybe on the grass, the cars, etc.. some sunshine tomorrow behind the front..clouds really won't roll in for us until T-Giving. What Im really hoping for is for the Rockies to get nailed..Im still waiting to see snow around Steamboat..the brown grass is hurting my eyes :)

[weather alias]

'cane,

Having worked at your station years ago, I can give you a piece of advice...never turn your back on upper-level lows coming in from the west. I was there in Abilene when a storm that was supposed to only produce a cold rain on Good Friday 1996 ended up producing 9.3 inches of heavy, wet snow! It is still Abilene's biggest 24-hour snowfall ever and the most snow that has ever fallen in April. So, no matter how weak, how far north, south, west or east the storm appears to be moving, never...ever...give up on a storm until the first flake falls. Abilene is by far one of the hardest cities to forecast snow for due to the lack of upper-air data to the west, southwest and south. Topography and elevation also play a key factor. Best of luck, my friend. Been there...done that.

[Tornadocane]

Oh, trust me..Im not giving up on the storm just yet. I still put a 50% chance of a wintry mix...I am just saying that right now, I am not putting accumulations in the forecast or calling for accumulating snow. I think it's a bit too early to be doing that and not until times gets closer will I then begin to mention it on air. I have learned that out here, not to forecast big events 4 days away when a lot can still change. Besides, lots of things look good 4 days out and never verify the way we would like em to :) I remember that event you are referring to. We actually still have video of it that we played earlier this year.

[SevereClear]

0Z GFS really backed off of the accumulations... You guys have me watching West TX now! :rolleyes:

[Tornadocane]

West Texas is the place to be! You should always be watching us.... for once, we get attention that doesn't have the word "dry line" in it...ah woo hoo! Wext TX is moving up in the meteorological world! :)

[Red Rover]

if the Euro and GFS were getting along I would have a little more confidence in the weekend forecast. This will be our first snow season with RPM so we'll see how that goes. Right now I'm just verbally mentioning snow

[cuontv]

I have been in Texas over 35 years. SW vorts are never accurately forecasted by 'ANY' models until at least 24 hours out or.... NEVER. There are no reporting stations in Northerrn MEX. You must learn from experience and know when to disagree with the data presented before you.

Its this challenging area of the country that has brought me from a top ten market back to this area of TX. There is nothing better than this mico climate as far as a forecasting challenge, except Denver, any market close to a Great Lake, or along the east coast.

Its these learning enviornments that allows mets in these areas to make it to large markets....or if you are content with a chief job in a small market like me.

PS...I am in now way DOGGING any mets out there. We all have are challenges.....The most important thing is that we all learn something new everyday!

Love,

ABI

[Tornadocane]

True, I have learned many many things from real-life forecasting that no text book could ever teach you out here. I have seen these situations produce snow and then these situations produce a lot of clouds, cold air and a light wintry mix.

The one thing I learned out here, is to never believe much of anything until it actually happens. I have played up events before and nothing ever happen and then sometimes play down events and they indeed verify. I take the latter and mention, but don;t go out and try to scare people days in advance.

As for being a great forecaster, unfortunately, I haven't seen many big markets ask how good of a forecaster you are. Heck, I have had a few phone interviews with top 30 markets and have yet to ever get asked how great of a forecaster I am. I wish they would...but, the future of the biz means that, that box will be left unchecked for decades to come.

[cuontv]

That's why YOU as the experienced met....should to bring that topic up in an interview.....how YOU are different than any other met they have ever interviewed. What can YOU bring to their station that no one has ever brought to the table. How can YOU bring $$$ to the owners pockets. Credibility, Confidence, Forecasting Skills, A Great Resume Tape that shows all this........Creating Sponsorable Graphics and Sponsorable Web Gems.

We all have the ball in our court...as long as you STAND OUT in an interview.

Come on SNOW STORM!


LOL

[Red Rover]

I have been in Texas over 35 years.

doing weather?

[cuontv]

doing weather?


LOL Sorry, that statement was a bit misleading. I have lived in Texas for 35 years.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

May need revising...

"Depending on the track of the disturbance, the temperature and thickness of the cold air, will depend on how messy it might get across the Big Country."

[Tornadocane]

That's why YOU as the experienced met....should to bring that topic up in an interview.....how YOU are different than any other met they have ever interviewed. What can YOU bring to their station that no one has ever brought to the table. How can YOU bring $$$ to the owners pockets. Credibility, Confidence, Forecasting Skills, A Great Resume Tape that shows all this........Creating Sponsorable Graphics and Sponsorable Web Gems.

We all have the ball in our court...as long as you STAND OUT in an interview.

Come on SNOW STORM!


LOL

So then how in the world did you convince your station to hire you?? Just kidding, you know I love you Dan...golf this weekend? :)

[cuontv]

May need revising...

"Depending on the track of the disturbance, the temperature and thickness of the cold air, will depend on how messy it might get across the Big Country."


Why is that?....Models are a bit warmer now....we will get precip....but need to wait until Friday to figure precip type out. We may see a few flakes Thurday into Thursday night.

[Golfball_Size_Hail]

I'm not talking about the forecast, talking about the second, "depend", akward wording. Not sure if that's a proper sentence if this was in a public blog.

I think it should be,

How messy it will be around the Big Country will depend on the track...blah, blah, blah...

[deltadog03]

The Euro is still the coldest model that I can see with the thermal profile. Somebody said it best earlier tho.....Models are horrible with energy coming out of the SW and especially old mexico.

[weather alias]

Gotta love it. The I-20 Holiday snowstorm strikes again!
3-6 inches possible with isolated heavier amounts! Happy (White) Thanksgiving!

[Tornadocane]

no kidding, we were all paying attention to this weekends event that we overlooked this storm...thanks alot

[deltadog03]

Once again another SW energy suprise. This is one thing I would like our tax dollars to go towards....A better Upper Air Network over old mexico. That would obviously need some work with the mexican gov. too.

[cuontv]

3" of snow at my house today and still snowing in ABI.. Some areas north and west of ABI have seen 6". Can't wait for the next storm

[weather alias]

Yeah, watch this next storm tap into more Gulf moisture and produce only rain and t-storms!....or..it could go right on top of Abilene and turn that rain into another 6-9 inches of snow. As mentioned before, good luck figuring it all out! The models aren't helping with their "spray" of solutions as to where the upper-low will go.

[SevereClear]

DANG! Did everyone get burned on today's forecast?

[cuontv]

NO...I forecasted snow....but never forecasted amounts...This next one looks to travel along the same path as the one today...QPF's are 5X as great with the next one this weekend....Need to watch the temps.

I'll have pic posted to my site late...I'll post it shortly...

[The Fedora]

We missed the snow up here in SPS by... THAT much. Dangit.

[Tornadocane]

no, i didn't exactly blow by the forecast...I mentioned that we had a chance for a wintry mix..more so on the side of light snow, but i only said that if accumulations did occur, that it would occur on the grass and cars..not on the streets. i didn't exactly forecast this much....

[Red Rover]

Its always the smaller scale, fast moving waves that get us.

[QG Theorist]

the water vapor loop early this morning showed a very well defined circulation, but the models never pick these up worth a damn. Hindsight sucks.

[south side of the sky]

You guys should post some pictures if you got em, looked like good a snowfall.

[SevereClear]

If you guys were not caught by "surprise" as your website says, I would be having a little chat with your webmaster.

We dealt with that before... we nail the forecast and the newsies say it was a "surprise" storm!!!

[Tornadocane]

Looks like this weekend may turn ugly again across West Texas. Yesterdays snow melted pretty quickly, I wasn't here to see it..but, less than 24 hours later, it's all gone...somethin tells me this weekend will be a little different :) Good thing i flew back from DCA in time...

[cuontv]

Yup Tornadocane. I wouldn't be suprised to see up to 10" of snow is some areas West of Abilene. Sunday AM will be a mess. Our dewpoint has dropped to 18 degrees now. Evap Cooling will cause the mix to change to snow alot sooner now. The NAM initialized the dewpoint at 00Z at -1.4C...29 degrees. Its 11 degrees off. This event may be record breaking as far as an all time snow total for one day.

PS here is my link to weather pics...look at the ones for Nov 23rd.

http://dragonneo.net/~ktabswat/?M=A

D

[cuontv]

Were are fixin' to get nailed with snow in ABI....It's 5:24pm CST

[deltadog03]

CU...I am again jealous of you.....Evap cooling and dynamic cooling is really going to help yall.

Rather large loop, but take a look at the WV. Very nice looking upper level low digging down. I forecast a few suprises with this puppy!!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/24h/

[SevereClear]

The temperatures better start dropping... -RN won't cut it! :)

[SevereClear]

http://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/wx/277.jpg

[SevereClear]

It took a little longer to changeover... didn't it. I can't wait for some snow!

[Tornadocane]

http://www.ktxs.com/weather/livetowercam.html

It took FOREVER to finally change over to snow...looks like the fun is now over..will prob. be mostly gone in about 12 hours...sigh....

[The Fedora]

It's now snowing here in SPS... Woo Hoo!

[SureFireWeather]

If you're in the south-central US and wanted to show your viewers a little Radar 101, there's some pretty good brightbanding a little west of Wichita Falls this evening.

[The Fedora]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=fdr&loop=yes

[Tornadocane]

Our RADAR earlier was showing some bright reds..reminded me of spring time here in West Texas...then I saw why .. pancake size snowflakes (ok, so maybe not that big)

[SureFireWeather]

I guess that's a classic "Texas Snowflake" ....

[cuontv]

More snow pics:

http://dragonneo.net/~ktabswat/?M=D

Some areas north of I20 picked up 3-5",

check out the vis sat b-4 its too late!