This got me wondering about the future

[yado]

Since it is obvious that a good chunk of the local TV broadcast viewers are baby boomers between the ages of 50 and 60 years old, what happens when all these boomers die or become to old to make a difference in the local broadcast viewership polls?
Will the Nielsen ratings drop even more drastically than recent trends?

My gut feeling is that the younger generations will not be there to pick up the baby boomers slack.

Comments anyone?

[Brick]

...but when they pass on, there will be plenty of 30/40 somethings who currently claim that they don't watch the news, but in reality they watch just as intently as those in their 50s and 60s. They will have filled their shoes to become the next generation of picky, crotchety-old, local news viewer.

You know...people like you. :D ;)

[yado]

Yeah, I admit I'm a junky, but I know a whole bunch of peers who could give a rats a$$ about getting the local news on the tube. They grew up on MTV and now are getting their news via the internet and would rather watch HBO, ESPN or Comedy Central on Television.

I do agree that there are "plenty" of people in their 30s & 40s coming up, but certainly not to the massive level of baby boomers. The boomers grew-up on TV news, not MTV & ESPN.

[ December 12, 2005, 08:29 PM: Message edited by: yado ]

[Stormtracker_Tony]

I would have to agree with you on that Yado..I see the same thing going with local radio too...people are getting IPODs and MP3 players and Satellite Radio, etc...Rare to find any younger generation that get in the car and listen to the local radio station...I think local radio is going to become almost extinct in the years to come..and eventually, I think local tv will do the same..It'll take time, and will probably never be completely gone in our lifetime (as there's still a few records out there, still a few casette tapes, still a few gas stations in the country *although few and far between* that will have a service guy fill your gas for you and wash your windshield..etc..) but whereas now, it's the rule to have local tv and radio, I think that one day it may become the exception to have those..

[Ryder13]

I wouldn't count out local TV and radio just yet.

The question is. "Will they be able to reinvent themselves?"

For example, time was all radio was done by networks. Then local stations found out they could serve their markets better. Now the pendulum has swung back to networks (for financial reasons) -- but people are willing to PAY for commercial-free service. (But that was the theory behind going to the movies and we now see commercials before the trailers. Don't be at all surprised to see this happen on sat radio as well.)

As to getting news off the web -- how many local stations and even networks (Can you say "NBC Nightly News Webcast" or "NBC Weather Plus") are already streaming on the web. Eventually TV and the web will be so intergrated, you won't be able to tell where one ends and the other begins. It'll be five THOUSAND channels -- but there still won't be anything on. ;)

[Stormtracker_Tony]

hmm, interesting points, Ryder...I guess the old saying "history repeats itself" could be true this time around..I'm definitely not as concerned about the TV aspect, as I am with the radio..I can still see many many years left in TV, although I do sense major changes in the years to come..but it wouldn't surprise me in the coming years to see radio go out...I mean, back in the day AM radio was the thing...now if you flip to AM, most of the time all you hear is static, a few boring talk shows and you might pick up an all spanish channel or something...It's not what it used to be...and back in the day when truckers used to talk on CB's...It's all about HAM radio these days...but back to the FM radio situation, I'm not really all that concerned about the satellite radio stations as I am the IPOD/mp3 stuff...In my car, for example, I've got a 97 Mustang *woohoo chick magnet, I know...although it hasn't made me lucky with the ladies yet..but thats a different story*...It had AM/FM radio and a cassette player! I just recently got an mp3 player installed in it...Now I've got cd's with thousands of mp3's on them, and haven't even turned on the radio in months..With the radio, I have to listen to what research says is "popular" and what order is supposed to work...with my mp3's, I can play whatever song I want, whenever I want it..Even the satellite radio isn't that nice to me, because you still have to flip through channels until you find something you want to listen to (and sometimes you still wont find your dream song)..but with the mp3's, you can go right to the song you want to hear...and even my grandma (who is old as the hills) and used to listen to radio all the time, finally upgraded to a cd player not long ago...I'm noticing that even older people are starting to catch on to some of the newer age trends..and unless they clear out a crap load of other frequencies so everyone can have their own frequency..and you can simply say the name of any song in the world and song will play on your frequency, I just dont see how radio of any kind can stack up to an IPOD or mp3 player..I know I would be lost without mine and I couldn't stand it if I had to go back to regular radio..

Another thing I can see with radio and probably tv as well, is eventually the abolishment of censorship...I remember just a handful of years ago when many radio stations prohibited saying something as simple at "b*tch"...now, you tune into alt.rock stations and hear the college dj's talking about masterbating and all these slang terms....tv shows are saying things I would never have dreamed several years ago would be said on the main networks..Shows like Family Guy that comes on FOX, which includes anything from prostitution, cartoon nudity, racist material, etc...then show's like Will and Grace on NBC which exposes all the secrets of homosexuality *a subject that just a few years ago was a sin to mention on tv*...It's like every year that goes by, a little more is allowed to be said..I think years down the road, it'll get to the point to where some pornographic material *such as brief nude scenes in movies* will be allowed on the main networks and I'll be willing to bet that the day will come where you can free use the S and F words on tv and radio...and I do know of a college rock station that plays the unedited version of "down with the sickness" from "disturbed"...in which the lead singer clearly shout "*****ing whore" as plain as day..I actually emailed one of the DJ's and asked him how did they get away with it...he said "believe it or not, noone has made the first complaint about it..and until someone does, we'll keep testing the boundaries and see what we can get away with"...I tell ya, you'll find that happening much more often in the years to come! geez, this is a long post! I'm gonna shut up now! *I think this is an interesting topic though, if you haven't picked up on that already* ;)

[ December 13, 2005, 12:20 AM: Message edited by: Stormtracker_Tony's silver ba BELLS ]

[TAFKA wacowx]

Ryder has the idea, there will always be local TV and radio stations, but not in their current manifestations. LOCAL is the key and stations will have to learn how to provide information and specialized programming that cannot be found on the national network feeds.

I feel there will be fewer local choices and those that survive will be the ones that provide the local markets exactly what they want and need. Instead of 3, 4 or 5 channels in a market doing news/weather, expect one or two. That will cut down our job opportunities quite a bit so that the hundreds of grads each year will continue to lower salaries in TV since there will be fewer and fewer jobs.

Again, local TV will never cease to exist, but there will continue to be fewer viewers unless we can provide something to attract people back to news/weather watching. There are few like myself who absolutely enjoy watching local news...it's true that most of the 20-30-40 somethings would rather get news and weather via the internet or cable channels. Honestly, I don't read the local newspaper or really watch the news for local news...I just watch to see what different stations are doing. I get my local news through osmosis I suppose. :D

The best thing we can do to protect ourselves in this shrinking business is to absolutely continue to improve and learn. Constantly improve your presentation and communication skills. Watch your airchecks each day. Your longevity will be decided upon your communication ability and not education, seals or weather knowledge. It's like this now, but will only get worse...even in smaller markets that will continue to have news: out of work mets from larger markets with experience will settle on lower-paying jobs in smaller markets so only the best communicators will survive.

Those who can explain the weather simply and succinctly and are entertaining at the same time will have no problem in the future. Sure, there may be some bumps as the station you are currently working at shuts down the news department, but the above-skilled people will have no problem finding another job.

[ December 13, 2005, 04:05 AM: Message edited by: WacoWX Outside is Frightful... ]

[Ryder13]

Radio will probably change, but I would agree that music station may be on their way out because of digital technology MP3 etc.

But until cars get to a point where they can drive themselves -- there will be a need for those of us who want news/information/sports/talk but are not in a position to watch.
Radio is still the most practical way to deliver that.
Now, it might not be AM (though I've have heard that there is now DIGITAL AM -- not sure if that really is something or just a gimmick) -- but the need for a non-visual method of dispersing information will be around for awhile.

[MOCR]

As a GM in radio, I would agree with several points already posted- radio, like all broadcasting, is in flux and will always be. I too long for the old times when local personalities were playing songs to the local audience and talking about local things, but I DON'T miss the old technology: 8-track tapes, clunky AM/FM cassette rigs for the car that used pushbutton "memories", etc. (I think my el cheapo Kraco ate as many tapes as it played).

The word we use in radio is LOCALISM. That's the key to survival against changes in technology. Will radio ever go away? No, it'll adapt just as every other previous media has done. Tony may not listen to AM radio, but enough people still do, and will in the future, that AM will still be around. I'm not worried about satellite radio, just as local TV isn't worried about Dish- as long as the local broadcasters have the power to provide local content on their local signal, people will continue to tune in despite owning MP3 players, Ipods, Walkman's or whatever.

One key to my radio station's success, ironically, is severe weather- Ipods can't cover that. Satellite Radio cannot cover that. "Not yet" some may say, but I'm not worried. Digital radio looks very promising and offers some possibilities to bring back some of that old glory.

As I tell my Mass Comm students, old media rarely if ever goes completely away- it essentially learns to adapt. We still have nespapers making enough profits to stay in business, Clear Channel still thinks commercial radio (AM and FM) is the business to be in, and despite cable and satellite, the TV networks still bring in a hefty share of profits.

Now where's my USB key so I can transfer "Dark Side of the Moon" to my laptop??

[MOCR]

Originally posted by Ryder13:
...Now, it might not be AM (though I've have heard that there is now DIGITAL AM -- not sure if that really is something or just a gimmick)...Oh it's real, and it's very kool, but since this side is for weather, I'll spare you the technospeak unless you really want the details...

[Ryder13]

I would like to hear the details. But in the interest of not 'corrupting' this side of the board -- please PM me with those. (Unless, of course, there are others who would like to hear them as well.)

[Backscatter]

Originally posted by WacoWX Outside is Frightful...:


Those who can explain the weather simply and succinctly and are entertaining at the same time will have no problem in the future. Sure, there may be some bumps as the station you are currently working at shuts down the news department, but the above-skilled people will have no problem finding another job.I agree with this 100%. I believe the person will succeed in this business, not the graphics or the "show" surrounding them.

What I mean is this... I know some TV mets who are what they are because of the weather bells and whistles. In other words, they put up a "front" and surround themselves with the station's purchased goodies.

If you can survive on your own two feet and make viewers watch you no matter what graphics vendor you have, you are successful. A majority of viewers could care less about trillion-watt radars and other senseless gimmicks.

Quite frankly... a majority of viewers watch a particular station because of heritage first, personalities second, and presentation elements last. There are of course exceptions, but not many.

[yado]

I'm not disputing the idea that local broadcasts will always be in demand. In fact, I also believe that "localism" is the key for growth.

However, my main point is that due strictly to demographics, there will be a significant drop in viewers of local news broadcasts. For instance, a Nielsen rating of 10 could easily be cut in half for some stations over the next several years, especially when you factor in the younger generation's viewing habits.

[Ryder13]

But you have to wonder -- will Nielsen also adapt with the new technology?

For example, Nielsen recently announced that it would start to count viewers even if they TiVo'd or otherwise recorded the program.

One can assume that, eventually, watching a program via webcast or phonecast or podcast or whatevercast would also be counted.

It isn't so much the program that is out-of-date -- but rather the method of delivery.

[Harris K. Telemacher]

Originally posted by yado:

For instance, a Nielsen rating of 10 could easily be cut in half for some stations over the next several years, especially when you factor in the younger generation's viewing habits.Seriously to be serious, that is not very good news for stations that are currently pully *'s for thier newscasts.

But my question is this, "What are the odds of a middle aged guy with no formal education in weather and no real paid on-air-TV experience, but did work years ago at a now bankrupt weather graphics company being a savior to this problem?"

[yado]

Originally posted by Harris K. Telemacher:

But my question is this, "What are the odds of a middle aged guy with no formal education in weather and no real paid on-air-TV experience, but did work years ago at a now bankrupt weather graphics company being a savior to this problem?"The odds are definately not very good. That is why this thread developed and has gained some interest. Obviously it has spiked yours.

[ December 13, 2005, 08:43 AM: Message edited by: yado ]

[MOCR]

Ryder13 check your PMs...

[Retired from the Biz]

Originally posted by Ryder13:
But you have to wonder -- will Nielsen also adapt with the new technology?

For example, Nielsen recently announced that it would start to count viewers even if they TiVo'd or otherwise recorded the program.

One can assume that, eventually, watching a program via webcast or phonecast or podcast or whatevercast would also be counted.

It isn't so much the program that is out-of-date -- but rather the method of delivery.How soon until sponsor's find a way to mess up TIVO? Like when you now buy a DVD and can't fast foward through some lame comericial when you first play the disk.

How soon until the weatherperson looks like a NASCAR driver with logos all over his/her map and his/her suit?

[ December 14, 2005, 07:20 AM: Message edited by: Holiday Freelance Wx HO.... ho ho ]

[TAFKA wacowx]

Going back nearly 4 years and found this gem. Wanted to see if anyone has different opinions. Personally, I maintain my original predictions, more or less.

Mind you, I said all this, years before I left TV.:(

I will also re-affirm my belief that skilled communicators will still have no problem finding a job in the future. Trouble is, most of the mets on TV right now aren't as skilled at communication as they should be. :shifty:

[Vertical Velocity]

Good digging, TAFKA Waco. I agree with your predictions.

I didn't even realize that this thread was 3-4 years old when I first started reading. It seems even more relevant today.

I think the state of local TV will be temporarily better in 3-5 years (or whenever the economy fully turns around). But whenever the next recession hits....watch out! That is when I think there will be more major changes in the industry. Half as many TV Jobs, etc.

[TAFKA wacowx]

Just curious VV:

Why so positive that the industry will survive THIS recession? I mean, 3-5 years from now even fewer people will be watching local news. If some stations give up news in the midst of this recession will there really be enough monetary incentive for them to re-instate it? The way I feel is that any cutbacks that are made now or in the near future will remain even when the economy recovers. If you can 'get away' with assembling a newscast with , let's say, half as many people...why would you want to hire back these extra folk?

Basically you are saying things will be find until the next recession which, conceivably could be 20 years from now. That's a pretty rosy outlook for an industry that was hurting even before this recession.

[Vertical Velocity]

I am no business expert by any means. However I do think that TV revenue will be back up 3-5 years from now compared to this year, despite viewership being either roughly the same or down somewhat. I say that just because a few years from now, the businesses that advertise will be more willing to spend more money again. They will still be plenty of viewers left after we pull out of this recession. Now will revenue ever get back to what it was in the 80s or 90s? For most stations, probably not....but it should be better than 2008 or 2009.

We have seen major market stations or weather savy medium market stations cut back from 4 or 5 mets on staff to 3. A real interesting question to me is will those jobs ever be re-created when we hit our next economic high in say 8-10 years? Most likely, some stations will....others won't. Many baby boomers will still be around during that time period watching local TV News. History tells that the we see a recession roughly every 15-20 years (late 2000s, early 90s, mid 70s,etc.) with some recessions worse than others. Lets say we do have a recession in 20 years. It is about this time that the Baby Boomer mortality rate will accelarate steeply. Plus, you thrown in we will have raised an entire generation more on the internet than TV (most youth today seem more entertained by a 3 minute clip on YouTube than a 30 minute TV sitcom). So what will likely happen is that we will have a "perfect storm" 20 years from now of where there will be much more severe cutbacks in the industry than what we are seeing now.

I think we are in agreement that the industry will be much different and less present 20 years from now. The bigger question is how much will it erode over say the next 10 years?

[Cumulo-nimbus]

You know, I've never been one to subscribe to some of the negative predictions about the future. Ten years ago, when the Internet was just gaining wide acceptance, who would have predicted this?

Television Viewing at All-Time High
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-tvwatching24-2009feb24,0,6282287.story

The important thing for local stations will be continuing to carve out their own niche in both a strong television and online presence for LOCAL information. Morning newscasts have actually been showing significant and steady growth.

I think the business is in for some big changes in the years ahead, but as long as stations continue to provide local news and weather information (and some sports, too) I think the business will move on in some form.

The heyday 70s and 80s will never come again, though. :(

[Bureau Chief]

Whats with all the new posters with no avatars and no post numbers?

[Vertical Velocity]

Whats with all the new posters with no avatars and no post numbers?

I am guessing that since this thread is over 3 years old, some of the accounts are no longer active.

[MOCR]

What a blast from the past Waco!

Can't say that I disagree with my earlier statements either.

I will add that I disagree with VV. I think we'll still be reeling economically in 3 to 5 years, and things in TV won't be much better.

Many businesses advertising today won't be here then. And I dare to predict that maybe some local stations may not be either, unless they're bought out/consolidated with others.

TV was a mess before the recession, so I think many of its ills aren't directly related to the current economic situation, but it certainly hasn't helped either.

And the DTV conversion will also have an adverse effect too I think.

[Lightweight]

Newspapers... go all web
TV................ try to go web, but when the platform eventually forms (2-4 years) take over broadcasting to mobile devices.

local news and weather WILL continue

Just one company may own what is now a radio station, newspaper, and tv station.. eventually turned into a Media outlet.

That is when the profits & salaries will be back.... 10-15 years.

Those who are young enough and stick it out ... will do very well down the road.

[Gil]

There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of ratings here.

Ratings and shares are based on percentages of the television universe - the total number of homes using television.

Whether the universe expands or contracts as baby boomers pass on, the percentages of the TV universe will still be some fraction of 100. So, the measurement of the popularity of programs will ebb and flow as it always has.

The popularity of local TV news may continue to decline, in some regard, due to fragmentation as more and more choices become available.

A few years ago I totaled the 6 pm news shares in the market where I worked, then compared to several previous years, to confirm that total local news viewing was declining. Note that adding up the shares does not mean fewer people are watching TV - it means fewer are watching TV news, and more were watching other programs that were not previously available.

[Bureau Chief]

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a206/mainstreetmarshall/321310053_a574b005bf.jpg

[wxcookie]

It seems the older that people get the more that their community matters to them so as people get older we will get new viewers.
I think that some local broadcast will start using the internet as their sole source of revenue.

[wx or not]

I think that some local broadcast will start using the internet as their sole source of revenue.

As long as the older viewers don't have overly arthritic hands. Can't use a mouse right...:rolleyes: